At long last, the ruling coalition partners have been able to clinch a consensus that President Musharraf should be impeached. That done, the coalition leaders believe, the rest of the pieces of the obtaining political jigsaw puzzle like restoration of judges and repeal of Article 58-2(b) would automatically fall into their places.
The plan to oust the President starts with asking him to get a vote of confidence from the National Assembly in pursuance of his undertaking in the Supreme Court, which he cannot obtain given that his party PML (Q) and its allies do not have the majority.
Despite the fact that he had committed to doing so through his lawyers before the apex court when his electoral legitimacy was being adjudged, that if elected by the lame duck parliament he would seek the next parliament's vote of confidence as well, President Musharraf is not going to opt for a vote of confidence from the present assembly, triggering the second stage of the coalition plan which envisages his impeachment.
Since the constitutional provision about defection will not apply here, the voting pattern may be different from the norm in view of the fact that in this case the defection clause will not apply.
Under Article 63A, which deals with 'disqualification on grounds of defection', a member would stand disqualified if he votes contrary to his parliamentary party's direction in relation to election of the prime minister or chief minister, or a vote of confidence or no-confidence or a money bill. Since voting for impeachment is not covered by the defection clause, desertions cannot be ruled out. So nothing can be said as to who would part company with the ruling coalition and vote for Pervez Musharraf.
The ruling coalition would require 295 votes at the joint sitting of parliament to carry through its motion for impeachment. The four partners - PPP, PML (N), ANP and JUI (F) - and their allies claim to have 305 votes and hope that as momentum for the impeachment would develop more voters would jump onto the bandwagon. But there are also strong hints that the PPP could lose some of its voters.
Once President Musharraf is impeached and thus removed from the political scene, the deposed judges would be restored in line with the Murree Declaration or via a constitutional package, about which there is some confusion. The joint declaration read out by Asif Ali Zardari at the news conference at the end of three-day parleys of the coalition partners, says restoration would be in line with the Murree Declaration, which means by an executive order.
But during the question-answer session Asif Ali Zardari indicated a departure from it by offering an elaboration that once the "monitor" has disappeared from the scene the will of the people as reflected by parliament would prevail. Thereafter the coalition will start working to cleanse the Constitution of 58-2(b) and such other distortions that have crept into the document thanks to the Seventeenth Amendment.
President Musharraf has decided to fight back. If the ruling coalition has arrived at its decision to impeach the President after many false starts, the presidential camp too has meandered through a maze of indecision and contradictory positions. Before the February 18 parliamentary elections, the President had promised to call it a day if the national vote went against his party.
But when his party was defeated he warned that forces were with him, pouring scorn on the doubting "hypocrites". Power-addiction was clearly detectable when some days later he said without the 58-2 (b) he would be a "useless vegetable". "If I see that I don't have my role to play, then it is better to play golf and take rest".
All his posturing notwithstanding, the PPP wanted him to make a "very dignified exit", as against its coalition partners who were after his blood, most probably to convey to Musharraf's foreign friends that it stood by its 'commitment' to work with him. But as time passed and the coalition government's failures became too obvious, President Musharraf drew vicarious strength from it and, almost tongue-in-cheek, threw down a gauntlet to the political forces.
Should they move for his impeachment, which he thought they would not, he would call it a day. That was in June. That day seems to have arrived. Now that the ruling coalition has announced their decision to go for impeachment, he is said to be closeted with his legal advisors to devise a counter strategy. He is said to be ready to face the charges on the floor of parliament.
His best defence weapon, however, would be the use of Article 58-2(b) of the Constitution, but this would be predicated upon the willingness of the military top brass consenting in advance to such an action. So far there are no signs, whatsoever, of the President getting the nod from Rawalpindi.
Given that impeachment is provided for constitutionally there is no question of military intervening to bail him out. This is a different Pakistan, not of the 80s and 90s when military takeovers were a norm, rightly says Nawaz Sharif.
Impeachment of President Musharraf was always on the cards, but the main coalition partner, PPP, had thought he would go on his own. Somehow he kept deluding himself with the false hope that he would weather this storm too. However, finally the proverbial moment of truth for Pervez Musharraf has arrived. His party men want him to fight back, and probably he would. But that would be a losing battle.
Even if he survives impeachment, the judges' restoration, which in that case would become all the more certain, would confront him with a far more lethal challenge. Ideally, he should call it a day and gracefully walk into the sunset. The dignity of his office demands that he should leave when he sees he is not wanted. In case, he fights back and loses he should be then ready for the next stage - his trial for treason under Article 6.
Although both Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif did not forewarn of such an eventuality in so many words, they made no commitment not to do that, either. There is a non-political perspective to this high drama as well and that is, that the people want this to be over as early as possible so that the government can devote its full attention to the urgent problems of the state.