The prospects for a bumper Australian wheat crop have dimmed after drought deepened in the key eastern growing state of New South Wales ahead of spring, when good rainfall is crucial. The state, which provides around 30 percent of Australia's national wheat crop, was still more than two-thirds in drought, Primary Industries Minister Ian Macdonald said.
Drought had increased slightly to 66.2 percent of the state in the last month, up from 65 percent the month before. "Farmers are basing their hopes on more spring rains to help them through the season," he said.
Australia is forecast to recover from two years of drought-affected crops to boost its national wheat harvest to around 23.7 million tonnes in 2008/09, according to the government unit the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics. In the past two years crops were halved from normal levels by Australia's worst drought in 100 years, to 13.0 million tonnes in 2007/08 and to 10.8 million tonnes the year before.
Forecasts are based on average rainfall, and dry weather has returned to eastern Australia as spring nears. Private group Australian Crop Forecasters said on Monday that it was maintaining its forecast of a national wheat crop of 24.05 million tonnes, but possible downgrades loomed. "The crop is hanging on in most areas, with northern New South Wales being the region most in need of a rain, but if we get average rains over spring we are confident of our current wheat number," the group's principal Ron Storey said.
Crop forecast figures for New South Wales would start to be cut back if the weather stayed dry for the next three to four weeks, he said. ACF is presently forecasting wheat production of over 7 million tonnes from New South Wales in the current crop.
The rest of Australia was in reasonably good shape, with crops "hanging on" in Victoria and South Australia. Agriculture Minister Macdonald said that crops were still in a much better position than this time last year and farmers remained optimistic about this year's prospects. Above average spring rainfall would be needed to produce reasonable yields, he said.