Deadlock between coalition partners over the restoration of deposed judges has raised questions about the survival of the government that forced Presidennt Pervez Musharraf to resign According to analysts, the two main coalition partners, Pakistan Peoples Party, Asif Ali Zardari, and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif, are unnatural allies.
Their opposition to Musharraf threw bitter rivals during the 1990s, when Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif alternated as prime minister, the parties together. His departure could undermine the logic of their alliance, analysts said. "The glue that was holding the coalition partners together was Mr Musharraf. Now that punching bag has gone," said Rashid Rehman, a former newspaper editor and analyst.
"Going by Tuesday's deliberations, alarm has been raised," Rehman said, referring to a long meeting in which the two main parties failed to break their deadlock over the judges Musharraf fired last year. Investors are watching nervously. The crisis over Musharraf had already hurt financial markets in the country of 165 million people, and raised concern in Washington it distracted from efforts to tackle militants.
Musharraf's resignation lifted Pakistan shares and the rupee on Monday and again on Tuesday, but stocks fell more than three percent on Wednesday morning as investors began to lose hope for an end to political tension. "The only thing that's a surprise is how quickly it has happened after Musharraf left. They've hardly had time to savour their victory," Rehman said.
Sharif, who heads the second biggest party in the coalition, has been insisting the judges be restored to office. "But Bhutto's party is dragging its feet because the deposed chief justice might take up challenges to an amnesty from graft charges granted to party leaders last year," analysts say.
ARMY NEUTRAL: "My optimism is fading very quickly," said a professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences Rasul Bakhsh Rais. "The coalition may not continue if the judges are not restored," he said. The departure of Sharif's party from the coalition would not force an election. Bhutto's People's Party, the biggest in parliament, should be able to gather enough support to remain in government.
With Sharif winning much popular support for his tough stand on the unpopular Musharraf and the judges, an election is the last thing Bhutto's party wants, he said. "If elections are held, I don't think the People's Party can survive. It will be wiped out," Rais said.
Two smaller coalition partners are trying to end the impasse over the judges and leaders are due to meet again on Friday. Sharif's party has raised the possibility of pulling out. "If they don't settle it, then we could review our strategy and relations with the government ... all options will be open," Sharif party Vice-President Zafar Iqbal Jhagra told Reuters. Analysts ruled out any imminent intervention by the army, whose image was damaged by Musharraf's unpopularity.
"The army wants to be neutral now, they want to be out of politics and I don't see them playing a role in the near future," said Umbreen Javaid, head of the Politics Department at Punjab University. But if the economic and political situation deteriorated, military intervention could not be ruled out.
"They're not coming back tomorrow, but if the situation gets worse and you begin to hear a public clamour for something to be done because the coalition government is in paralysis and the country is spiralling downwards, then all bets are off," said Rehman.