The preparation of a charge sheet by members of the Coalition against President Musharraf would have formed the basis of an impeachment that may have acted as a deterrent to all future political adventurers had it been presented in parliament.
It was, according to President Musharraf's farewell speech, a measure of his 'Pakistan first' policy that prompted him to tender his resignation prior to the commencement of the impeachment proceedings in an effort to ensure that the institutions of state did not come into conflict with each other and thereby generate instability; and not be attributed to what he deemed false charges, unlikely to be proved, levelled against his performance during the past nine years.
It is significant that President Musharraf's focus remained what he considered were his accomplishments in the economic arena with the war on terror barely mentioned as one of his major policy goals post-9/11. His claim that the economy was buoyant with an impressive 7 percent growth rate during his tenure requires some analysis.
Growth of the economy plummeted to 2 percent in the year following the coup by President Musharraf. The year 2000-01 was also marked by his isolation from the world polity and the entire country suffered from a cessation of bilateral assistance, specifically from the United States, a price that impacted on the growth rate.
The following two years, after 9/11, saw a slow surge in our assistance levels and the growth rate registered 3.1 percent in 2001-02 and 4.7 percent in 2002-03. These two years were marked by the launch of a global war on terror and an acknowledgement by the US and the UK that Pakistan was a frontline state in this war. Thence began massive injection of development and military assistance.
According to the Economic Survey, 2007-08, "The disbursement of external assistance maintained its pace at around $2.4 billion per annum during the 1990s. It has risen to $3.2 billion during 2006-07 mainly because of aid inflows for budgetary support/Balance of Payments". The fact that the budget deficit had begun to rise, requiring external support, strengthens the view that reliance on external assistance to balance the budget as well as the balance of payments position began during Musharraf's watch.
There is no doubt that our macroeconomic indicators were responsible for the decision of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) to reduce Pakistan's performance linked concessionary financing. Revenue collection, the President maintained had also risen during his tenure. This cannot be denied but unfortunately for him an assessment of the success or failure of any policy takes account of trends rather than absolutes.
Thus even though revenue rose to one trillion rupees, total revenue as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product never reached the 1990's average high of 17.1 percent or the 1997-98 ratio of 16 percent, a year prior to President Musharraf's take-over. In 2007-08, provisional estimates placed it at 14.7 percent.
Foreign exchange reserves, the President noted in his farewell speech, were estimated at $17 billion late last year whereas the current figure is about 10 billion dollars. This does not reflect profligacy of the present government, it's too early to be able to assess that, however it is a reflection of the rising international oil and food prices, our principal imports items for the current year.
The President also argued that the provision of education and health improved during his tenure. There is no denying that the educational and health institutions rose in number during nine years. However allocation for health remained well below the targets set by IFIs: from 0.58 percent of GDP in 2000-01 to 0.57 percent in 2007-08.
With respect to education, Pakistan is now one of just 12 countries that has spent a little over 2 percent of GDP on education during the last two years. In 2000-01, 1.6 percent was allocated for education as a percentage of GDP, in 2002-03 only 1.7 percent was so allocated and in 2004-05 only 1 percent. During Musharraf's entire tenure education outlay never matched the 2.5 percent allocated to education as a percentage of GDP in 1996-97.
Moreover, an inflexible curriculum and political interference have created schools that have barely lifted the very low literacy rates. President Musharraf also argued that the stock market buoyancy and the Rs 60 per dollar average during his tenure were reflections of his accomplishments. One cannot deny these claims. The newly elected government would have to focus on these two macroeconomic fundamentals in an effort to ensure that the market perception about its commitment to reform is positive.
Musharraf supporters, that can now be counted on the fingers of one hand, though the number may well rise in time as stated by the President during his farewell speech, need to focus on two different time periods that marked his performance. The first period, in the immediate aftermath of his coup, was welcomed by all.
It is significant that great strides were made during the first three to four years of his rule with respect to arresting corruption through the newly established National Accountability Bureau which was at the time marked by the application of a uniform standard of accountability; in addition throughout his rule Musharraf's government would routinely take all stakeholders on board especially with respect to business and trade organisations. The result was a buoyant industrial and trade sector.
However, once he tried to get a democratic facade for his one-man rule he was forced to compromise with politicians and thereby a system evolved that had the infirmities of a one man rule and none of the strengths of a democratic set-up. The subsequent scandals bear ample testimony to this: from the stock market scandal, to scandals associated with increasing cartelization to shady privatisation deals.
Musharraf's knowledge of economics was severely limited and he began to favour quick fixes proposed by his Finance Minister who was later promoted to the post of Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz, that involved promoting consumerism as the engine of growth, supported by a banking sector eager to enter the consumer market, and failed to focus on raising productivity of the country. The current load shedding levels are a measure of his failure in ensuring the government's focus on physical infrastructure development.
Thus Musharraf who began his rule as a man committed to making a difference ended up as a man with no exit strategy believing, as he claimed in his resignation speech, that the new government would harness his expertise.
Pakistan at this juncture does not require experience in flawed policies of the last four to five years but a national consensus approach that may provide the critical ingredients for reaching solutions to our varied economic and law and order problems. It is to be hoped that the Coalition remains intact and meets the expectations of those who voted them to power.