Cyprus leaders launch talks on Wednesday to reunite the island in what diplomats say is the best chance in decades to end a conflict threatening Turkey's European Union aspirations. Mediators are pinning their hopes on two moderates - newly elected Greek Cypriot Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot Mehmet Ali Talat - to settle a feud that has long defied international efforts.
"This is the best chance on Cyprus in at least a generation," said a diplomat close to the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Both leaders are genuinely committed for a deal, and that is what was lacking before."
Both will need to steer through a legal and practical quagmire to re-unite the island, divided after a 1974 Turkish invasion that was triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup.
Christofias was elected president in February pledging to end the stonewalling tactics of his predecessor Tassos Papadopoulos, who led his community into rejecting a UN reunification blueprint in a referendum in 2004. Cyprus has frustrated an army of mediators. Although both sides in principle agree to reunite as a bizonal, bicommunal federation, they differ on how this might work. Wednesday will see the ceremonial launch of the talks, attended by former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, appointed UN envoy for Cyprus in July. Next week the two sides will delve into a complex list of issues ranging from future governance to how to deal with property claims from 250,000 people who have lost their homes.
A key area will be the status of the federated states in any settlement. Turkish Cypriots, whose breakaway state is unrecognised, say it will be a merging of two sovereign states.
That view is anathema to Greek Cypriots, who run the island's internationally recognised government and would refuse to concede any kind of sovereignty to Turkish Cypriots. "This is something they will clash on big time," said Hubert Faustmann, a Cyprus-based analyst. Looming in the background are the EU membership hopes of Turkey, the Turkish Cypriots' primary supporter. Greek Cypriots represent Cyprus in the EU and are unlikely to approve moves to bring Ankara into the fold as long as the island remains split.
Political analysts remain optimistic. Cyprus's admission to the EU in 2004 has offered islanders an element of security lacking in past negotiations, said Hugh Pope, an Istanbul-based senior analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG). "We also have two leaders who are most suitable for a deal, and a very supportive government in Turkey," he told Reuters. Jaded islanders say it will take nothing short of a miracle.
"I'm not sure I want to live with them again," said Greek Cypriot Stella Stavrides, 44. "I'd like a solution but it would be very difficult. I'm not sure I can trust the Turks."
Nicosia's Ledra Street, a poignant symbol of the city's division before it was re-opened to pedestrian traffic in April, is now teeming with Greek and Turkish Cypriot shoppers, but no sign of enthusiasm that a new era may be dawning. "We did our bit and said yes (in the referendum) and we were very disappointed," said Turkish Cypriot Emine Hussein, 46. "I've got to be hopeful but I don't think we will get anywhere."