The top British commander in Afghanistan, Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, has acknowledged that his side is "not going to win this war," and that it is necessary to hold negotiations with the Taliban in order to end the war.
Talking to the Sunday Times he said, "if the Taliban were prepared to sit on the other side of the table and talk about a political settlement, then that's precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this." The paper has also quoted the British Ambassador to Kabul, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, as having told French diplomats that international troops were not winning in Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, international press has been publishing reports of Taliban resurgence for a couple of years as the US and its man in Kabul, Hamid Karzai, kept laying much of the blame for their failure at Pakistan's door.
There are hardly any examples in history of foreign occupation succeeding in the face of nationalist resistance. Not long ago, the US itself met with a humiliating defeat in Vietnam, while trying to assert its power and combat Communism in the name of 'freedom and democracy'. Its invasion and occupation of Iraq is an unmitigated disaster. It will be lucky if it can get an 'honourable exit' from that unfortunate country. Afghans, of course, have a long and proud history of ousting foreign occupiers.
In the present instance, the US and its local allies made things easier for the nationalist resistance led by the Taliban - who otherwise are hardly the object of public adoration. The Taliban policies instill only fear and bitterness in the hearts of most ordinary Afghans. Yet their numbers have been swelling. The US' indiscriminate bombing of civilian populations and use of torture in its prison camps left many Afghans thirsting for revenge.
Furthermore, the majority Pushtun population's exclusion from power, and rampant corruption within the ruling coterie (Karzai's own brother, Ahmad, is said to be involved in drug trafficking) as well as among the US-supported warlords alienated the Afghan people from the Kabul government, nudging them towards the resistance fighters.
Sooner or later this resistance, as the British commander rightly observed, has to conclude in a political settlement. There are strong hints of the process already having been started. A few days ago, reports leaked to the press said that efforts are underway for a negotiated settlement of the conflict. Saudi Arabia, one of the three countries which recognised the Taliban regime in Kabul along with Pakistan and the UAE, has been approached to use its old connections to start the process with the blessings of Western countries. It is reasonable to believe that the 'leakage' was deliberate meant to prepare public opinion back in America and other Nato nations for the negotiations, and that the talks may have actually been going on for a while.
In a further indication of such a move being underway, Taliban leader Mullah Omer recently resorted to some public posturing on the subject, saying he would be willing to give the US and its allies safe passage out of Afghanistan. There seems to be credibility in reports that say the Taliban too are tired from fighting. The Afghan people having been in a state of war for three decades - fighting two foreign occupations and a series of internecine battles in between - suffer from extreme war exhaustion. They want peace, so do Pakistanis who have endured painful spillover effects of the unending wars in Afghanistan. Hopefully, the Saudis should be able to persuade their former protégé, Taliban, and their steadfast American friends to reach a negotiated settlement sometime soon.