Yields dip but still near recent peaks ahead of Fed minutes  

05 Jul, 2017

The Commerce Department said factory goods orders dropped 0.8 percent in May. Economists had forecast factory orders falling 0.5 percent.

US 10-year Treasuries were last up 3/32 in price to yield 2.334 percent, from a yield of 2.346 percent late Monday.

Fed officials have signaled they still plan another interest rate hike this year. Analysts said expectations are that the minutes, to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), will reinforce that view.

Analysts said comments from the heads of the European Central Bank and Bank of England last week indicate that global central banks appear to be simultaneously leaning toward tighter monetary policy. This view has driven the recent push higher in yields.

"The central banks all seem to be in agreement in kind of a hawkish signaling," said John Herrmann, director of interest rates strategy at MUFG Securities in New York.

In morning US trading, benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than seven weeks at 2.357 percent and three-year yields hit a roughly 3-1/2-month high of 1.598 percent. US two-year yields were at 1.410 percent, near Monday's more than eight-year peak of 1.426 percent.

Herrmann said the Fed minutes would likely indicate that the central bank saw the recent weakness in inflation as driven by transitory factors related to the oil, pharmaceutical and telecommunications sectors.

Analysts also said Friday's US non-farm payrolls report could show a jump in jobs growth for the month of June, which would also pressure yields higher.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to show US employers added 179,000 jobs last month, compared to just 138,000 in May.

"People would lean towards a stronger rather than weaker number," said John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at NatWest Markets. "The bias is for strength for a May payback," he said in reference to the June report's potential strength compensating for the weak showing in May.

 

Copyright Reuters, 2017
 

 

 

 

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