The Australian dollar spent on Tuesday in a tight holding pattern as a holiday in Tokyo kept trading thin and investors bided their time before important US economic news. In late trade, the local dollar was hovering around $0.6832, having spent the session shuttling between $0.6815 and $0.6850.
Traders saw some comfort in the resilience of support at 68 cents despite weakness in equity markets and an endless tide of grim economic news from around the world. "It might suggest the currency is either becoming slightly more resilient to risk swings or that the severe bearish A$ sentiment is abating," said Matthew Strauss, a currency strategist at RBC.
He noted that the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net short Aussie positions had stabilised at just above 4,000 contracts, well below the peak of 19,462 recorded in September. The Aussie also edged up to 61.69 yen, aided by Toyota's profit warning and talk the Bank of Japan might take advantage of holiday-thinned conditions to intervene.
"However, this relative stability can be easily shattered if one of Australia's key trading partners, like China, is unable to stop its sliding economy," cautioned Strauss. China surprised by cutting interest rates by 27 basis points on Monday, but investors appeared underwhelmed and Shanghai stocks fell over 3 percent. Other economic news was again gloomy, with a record plunge in euro zone industrial orders, a further rise in US mortgage defaults and a round of jobs cuts and profit warnings from US corporates.