Russia's budget deficit next year will be at least three percent of GDP under the most optimistic scenario, a senior Kremlin economic aide said Thursday. But the deficit could exceed five percent if the global economic slowdown is sustained, said Arkady Dvorkovich, an adviser to President Dmitry Medvedev, according to the website of Vesti-24 television.
Referring to an optimistic scenario where the slowdown ends in the middle of 2009, he told the channel: "Under this variant the deficit could amount to three or four percent," according to the RIA Novosti news agency. "If the situation follows the negative scenario and the fall of economic activity continues through all of next year, the deficit could exceed five percent," he added.
On Wednesday, Dvorkovich said Russia would have a budget deficit in 2009 after years of surpluses driven by high prices of oil, the country's main export. The price of oil has plummeted since this summer amid slumping demand caused by the global financial crisis. Russia's GDP was 1.29 trillion dollars and it ran a surplus of 5.5 percent in 2007, the last year for which statistics are available, according to the World Bank.