A latest forecast reveals that Pakistan will account for 1.3 percent of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2012, with a dwindling generation surplus that provides a growing import requirement unless there is more rapid capacity expansion, said the abstract of new Pakistan Power Report from Business Monitor International (BMI), a leading research organisation dealing with reports on country risk, industry and company intelligence on global markets.
The BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2007 is 6,865 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 9.6 percent over the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 9,435TWh by 2012, representing a rise of 37.4 percent.
Asia Pacific power generation in 2007 was 5,407TWh, accounting for 78.8 percent of electricity supplied in the region. The BMI's forecast for 2012 is 7,155TWh, implying 32.3 percent growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 75.8 percent - thanks partly to environmental concerns that should promote renewable, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
According to the report, Pakistan's thermal generation in 2007 was 60.7TWh, or 1.12 percent of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 1.13 percent of thermal generation. For Pakistan, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 47.5 percent of primary energy demand (PED) in 2007, followed by oil at 30.7 percent, hydroelectric energy at 12.9 percent and coal with a 7.9 percent share of PED.
Meanwhile, the regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,915mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 32.9 percent growth over the period. Pakistan's 2007 market share of 1.58 percent is set to fall to 1.46 percent by 2012.
Pakistan's 2.4TWh of nuclear demand in 2007 is forecast to reach 4.0TWh by 2012, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 0.43 percent to 0.62 percent over the period, added the report.
According to the report, Pakistan is now ranked equal fifth with Indonesia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its relatively high level of renewable (mostly hydro) generation and healthy power consumption/energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to move clear of Indonesia.
The BMI forecast further disclose that Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 5.6 percent a year between 2007 and 2012, with the2008 estimate at 4.4 percent. The population is expected to expand from 157mn to 174mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita both to increase significantly. Power consumption is expected to increase from 98TWh in 2007 to 118TWh by the end of the forecast period, which would end the generation shortfall (before transmission losses), assuming 4.7 percent annual growth in generating capacity.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 69.3 percent, which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region, the report added. This equates to 24.0 percent in the 2013-2018 period, down from 30.7 percent in 2007-2012. PED growth is set to increase from 23.4 percent in 2007-2012 to 29.1 percent, representing 88.9 percent for the entire forecast period. An increase of 76 percent in hydropower use during 2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 49 percent between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear usage up 491 percent from a low base.