Wall Street's bid to rally from its worst year since the 1930s will be tested next week by the year's first wave of likely dismal corporate news and possible roadblocks to President-elect Barack Obama's stimulus plan. Investors will also contend with a spate of economic news also expected to be dismal, including unemployment figures.
Still, analysts were cautiously optimistic that stocks might extend their three-day rally on hopes that the stimulus package would pass quickly in Congress, despite Republican concerns over its price tag. The end of hedge fund redemptions and tax-related selling pressure on stocks could help the market, they said.
"There's hope that a change in government leadership to President-elect Obama will mean things will be different for the economy as well," said Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles. But he warned, "The economic backdrop is still too negative."
This week closed out a brutal year for stocks, pockmarked by a string of financial disasters and the destruction of more than $5 trillion in market value on the S&P 500 index. The week, however, ended on an uptick as stocks gained for three straight trading days on optimism about 2009, despite the continuing bleak economic outlook. Volume was light during the holiday-shortened week.
For the week, the Dow was up 6.1 percent, the S&P 500 gained 6.8 percent and the Nasdaq rose 6.7 percent. Outlooks from companies including Chevron Inc could pose a possible stumbling block for stocks next week, ahead of earnings from some of the world's biggest firms. Traders and analysts expect pre-announcements from companies revising their earnings downward to reflect a dismal fourth quarter.
"A lot of companies have been really quite quiet about how their quarter is shaping up," said Marc Pado, US market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. "We're likely to see earnings that are going to contain big write-downs, especially from financials. We're bracing for it." Chevron, a Dow component and a bellwether of the powerful energy sector, will report interim fourth-quarter forecast on Thursday.
Other companies expected to report earnings next week include retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc and Monsanto Co, the agricultural products maker. Investors will also be watching out for prospects for Obama's proposed stimulus plan that he hopes will create or save up to 3 million jobs. Obama plans to meet congressional leaders on Monday, a day before the newly elected Congress is due to be sworn in.
Democrats hope to put a bill on Obama's desk by January 20 when he takes office, but some Republicans could stand in the way over concerns that it could grow to up to $1 trillion. Pado dismissed the Republicans' stance as "talking tough" and said: "Right now everybody knows we need a stimulus plan. We know we need jobs."
Investors will get a clearer picture of just how many jobs the United States will need next week after reports on the labour market on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, when the closely watched monthly payrolls figures for December are due. Other key data will be total vehicle sales and a retail sales report, both for December, already one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in recent memory.
According to Reuters estimates, car sales will fall to 10 million on an annualised rate, down from 10.3 million in November. The lower end of analysts' forecasts anticipate a drop to 8.9 million. Investors will also hone in on developments of a rescue of beleaguered automaker Chrysler LLC, which is still in talks with the US Treasury to finalise its $4 billion loan agreement. Chrysler's fate is important for auto parts makers, which got a boost from a rescue loan for General Motors Corp
Retail same-store sales, an industry benchmark, due out on Thursday are expected to fall 1.1 percent, the second-weakest result since at least 2000, according to economists polled by Reuters. "Trends on these macro factors are not likely to change abruptly," said Bart Geer, portfolio manager of the $2.8 billion Putnam Equity Income Fund. "Employment continues to get worse, construction spending continues to be weak, pending home sales aren't going to be any good. "But I would say a lot of economic statistics are lagging indicators. The fact that some of these numbers are not going to be good is not surprising."