The Syrian agriculture ministry's wheat production forecast puts the 2017 crop higher at 2 million tonnes. Officials, traders and farmers told Reuters earlier in July that figure was grossly inflated.
Syria used to produce 4 million tonnes in a good year and was able to export 1.5 million tonnes. The fall in output has put President Bashar al-Assad's government under increasing pressure to import the grain.
The latest assessment, conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) said the crop had improved on better rainfall and improved access to agricultural land.
"Main constraints continue to be the high cost or unavailability of inputs, such as seeds and fertilizer, and the destruction of infrastructure," the statement said.
Syria's wheat harvest dropped to its lowest level in 27 years in 2016, with some estimates putting it as low as 1.3 million tonnes, as fighting and poor rainfall further degraded the farming sector.
The FAO and WFP said this year's harvest would be 12 percent higher but did not give a comparative figure for last year.
Despite the increase in production, it is unclear how much of the harvest the government will be able to procure.
Syria's state grain buyer Hoboob purchases the local crop on behalf of the government. It has so far bought only around 250,000 tonnes, one government source said.
"We need to still assess and evaluate how much they (the government) will be able to buy because the trend is that there is cross-border trade," Adam Yao, FAO Syria Representative, told Reuters in a telephone interview from Damascus.
Some of the wheat produced in Hasaka, for example, filters out into neighboring Iraq and Turkey, Yao said.
A large part of Syria's agricultural heartland in the north has been under the control of Islamic State since 2014, when the ultra-hardline jihadist group swept through the area and established a de facto capital in Raqqa.
While Islamic State has been slowly driven back from its territory by US-backed forces in recent weeks, the retreating militants have laid waste to agricultural infrastructure in the area, which produces the bulk of Syria's main staple wheat.
"In Raqqa, shops are destroyed and the cost of the standard food basket has jumped by 42 percent between May and June this year," the study said.
The report estimates that 6.9 million Syrians are still food insecure, while an additional 5.6 million people are likely to become food insecure without the regular food assistance they receive every month.
"Access by humanitarian organizations to some besieged areas has improved compared to last year. Yet access continues to be heavily constrained in Deir-ez-Zor, where life-saving air-drops of food and other supplies continue, and in Raqqa where the situation has become critical due to the continuing fighting."