Global 2008/09 soyoil output and consumption is likely to fall with purchasing switching to palm oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. "In coming months, soyoil supplies will be affected by the pronounced decline in South American soybean production," it said.
It now estimates global October 2008-September 2009 soyoil production will fall to 36.88 million tonnes, down 0.9 million tonnes from its December estimate and down 0.8 million tonnes on 2007/08. The key US 2008/09 soyoil production will fall to 8.82 million tonnes from 9.33 million tonnes last season, it estimated. It expects US 2008/09 soyoil exports to fall to 0.79 million tonnes from 1.32 million tonnes in 2007/08.
"These changes on the supply side are likely to enforce a reduction of world soyoil consumption by around 1.3 million tonnes this season," it said. This would mean world 2008/09 soyoil consumption could fall to 37.06 million tonnes , it forecast. The 2008/09 figure would include falls in consumption of 0.5 million tonnes in the EU against last season, 0.3 million tonnes in India, 0.2 million tonnes in the United States and 0.1 million tonnes in China, it estimates.
"As a result, demand for palm oil, sun oil and rape oil is expected to rise notably," it said. It added: "The fact that global supplies of sun oil, rape oil and palm oil are currently still rather ample represents some relief for consumers."