Argentina's central soya-growing belt is getting above-average rain this month, hydrating bean pods that were shrivelling up weeks ago under the worst drought in decades, weather experts said on Tuesday. Farms in parched southern areas of the growing region continue losing crops, but storms farther north have improved what had been dire crop expectations in the world's No 3 soyabean exporter and top soyaoil and meal supplier.
"The main growing areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios provinces appear to have returned to normal rain patterns. In these areas the soya harvest could turn out to be normal, or a bit below normal," said Liliana Nunez, head of agro-meteorology at the National Weather Service. It has rained more than normal in Entre Rios and Santa Fe and in the extreme east of Cordoba this month.
Some of those zones had 50 millimeters of precipitation above the historical average in the first half of February, Nunez said. "But in the minor growing regions further south, like La Pampa and western Buenos Aires province, the drought continues," Nunez said. Argentina's 2008/09 soya crop will fall to 40 million tonnes from the 48 million harvested in the previous season, mainly due to the drought, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange says.
The government has not yet released an estimate for 2008/09 soya production, but the US Department of Agriculture foresees an Argentine crop of 43.8 million tonnes, down from the 46.2 million tonnes produced in 2007/08. Argentine farmers began planting soya in November and December. Some of those plants are already in their early pod-filling stage, a particularly sensitive period in which beans need moisture to develop.
"The change in the weather pattern that allowed for better rains in those central growing regions is still in place," said forecaster Joel Burgio of DTN Meteorlogix. La Pampa, which was hit by only one big rainstorm over the past month, is expected to continue to get less precipitation than the rest of the country. "They are actually still losing some yield potential in La Pampa and in parts of Buenos Aires," Burgio said.
Dry soil can slow germination of soya plants. It can also cut yields by reducing the number of pods, seeds produced per pods, or the weight of beans. Pods may hold as many as five beans but average three. Less soya than expected was planted this season due to the dry conditions. Farmers also planted late and their crops have suffered from unusually aggressive insects brought by the hot weather, said Cristian Russo, an agronomist at the Rosario Grains Exchange.