Visits of Pakistan's political and military leadership to China and the United States would play an important role in taking future line of action by the government regarding militancy and testing political means for restoring peace in Pakistan in general and troubled Swat valley in particular.
President Asif Ali Zardari China's tour and Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's US visit are taking place at a crucial time and both these visits and their outcomes would play an important role in policy making of the present government. These visits are taking place immediately after the government has agreed in principle with the defunct Tehrik Nifaz-e-Shariat Muhammadi (TNSM) to establish Qazi courts in Malakand division and Kohistan district of Hazara.
Foreign Minister Mahmood Qureshi is also leaving for the US on Monday on a four-day trip. Meanwhile, the US Ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W Patterson, left Islamabad for home on Sunday--only one day before Pakistan's Foreign Minister would be reaching there.
Analysts say that these trips are taking place in the backdrop of the government's agreement with TNSM on implementation of Nizam-e-Adl Regulations Act in Malakand division in return for peace and normalcy to militancy-hit Swat valley. The President has not yet signed the Act, but the PPP and the ANP--the two coalition partners--are optimistic about the implementation of the regulations in Swat.
There are both positives and negatives of the Swat accord, but in the present situation most of the analysts are of the view that the accord should be pursued in letter and spirit. The deteriorating law and order situation in NWFP in general and Swat in particular, the international community must prepare itself to swallow the bitter pill.
Most of the time during last more than seven years, the US government, under George W Bush, had never been happy over Pakistan's role in 'so-called' war on terror.
The Bush administration had persistently been demanding of Pakistan of 'doing more'. All these demands were made by Washington at a time when Bush administration was following a purely pro-India policy in the region. It was during Bush era that the US signed a nuclear pact with India. Pakistan was denied such pact despite the fact that it was, and is still, facing the "worst ever" power and gas shortages.
The Bush administration's pro-India policy, which was apparently aimed at countering China, created a lot of troubles in the relations between Pakistan and the US. Pakistan's leadership is, and was, convinced that India would never spare its western neighbour of its nefarious designs whenever it got an opportunity. In the past few years, Indian media and its think-tanks were propagating against Pakistan in such a way that "war on terror" was becoming more India's war than of US and Pakistan. The more the US got closer to New Delhi, the more Pakistan got suspicious with the Bush administration.
There are certain countries in the international coalition against terror that strongly support dialogue with Taliban in Afghanistan. The UK and certain other countries in Nato are supporting the idea of holding negotiations with the some militants in war-ravaged Afghanistan. The backdoor channels, mostly through Saudi Arabia, have been operating to woo the Taliban leadership for peace in Afghanistan. This is now an open secret.
Pakistan, in the form of Swat Accord with TNSM, offers a test case. If this test case proved successful, then the negotiations, truce and consequently an agreement with Taliban could be made possible in Afghanistan, where, according to some reports, former rulers still hold more than 65 percent of Afghan area.
For the last eight years, the US, Nato and Pakistani forces have mainly been using force as a tool to destroy the Taliban. Despite all their efforts, the mere use of force could not weaken the movement. There should be policy shift. The hatred for the US among the common people should be removed before using other options for wiping out terrorism from the region. There is also a need of having a regional approach to the issue, analysts say.