Palm oil exports by key producer Malaysia and its rival Indonesia are set to rise again this season as the global food industry becomes more dependent on palm oil, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. Malaysias October 2008/September 2009 palm oil exports are likely to rise to 15.83 million tonnes from 15.04 million tonnes in the same 2007/08 period, it estimates.
Indonesias 2008/09 exports are forecast to rise to 15.63 million tonnes from 14.10 million tonnes. "Significant reductions in world production and exports of soyaoil this season as well as insufficient supplies of other oils and fats will raise the dependence on palm oil worldwide," Oil World said.
"We expect that world palm oil exports will increase by 2.4 million tonnes or seven percent to a new high of 35.2 million tonnes in October-September 2008/09." At that level they would account for a record 56 percent of world exports of the 17 main oils and fats, it said. Coupled with slowing global production, high exports were likely to lead to a fall in palm oil stocks this season, it said.
"Malaysia is still the largest world exporter of palm oil so far this season, slightly exceeding the shipments of Indonesia," it said. Although Indonesian palm oil production had sharply exceed that of Malaysia since 2006, Indonesias export growth had been more sluggish, it said.
EU likely to reduce soyabean imports: The European Union is likely to reduce its soyabean imports in coming months as oilseed crushers switch to rapeseed and sunflower seed, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. EU September 2008/August 2009 soyabean imports are forecast to fall to 13.75 million tonnes from 15.18 million tonnes in 2007/08, it estimated. Brazil is likely to be a major loser, with its 2008/09 soyabean exports to the EU likely to fall to 8.70 million tonnes from 9.09 million tonnes in 2007/09.
US 2008/09 exports to the EU are forecast to drop to 2.90 million tonnes from 3.60 million tonnes, Paraguays to 850,000 tonnes from 965,000 tonnes and Argentinas to 260,000 tonnes from 375,000 tonnes, Oil World forecast.
"In the EU-27 (countries) there is a clear-cut shift in crushings from soyabeans to rapeseed in 2008/09," it said. It estimates combined EU October 2008/September 2009 crushings of the major oilseeds in the EU will rise to a record 39.6 million tonnes, up by 0.5 million tonnes on the year. "This includes increases in rapeseed by about 1.0 million tonnes and sunseed by 1.3 million tonnes but a decline in soyabeans by approximately 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes," it said.