Nigerias cocoa growing regions saw heavy downpours in the last few weeks which could bolster the mid crop due in April but also increase the risk of black pod disease, the Cocoa Association of Nigeria (CAN) said.
Akinwale Ojo, executive secretary of CAN - a grouping of farmers, buyers, grinders and exporters - said a good mix of rainfall and sunshine in the main south-west and south-east cocoa regions raised hopes for a better mid crop harvest, but farmers were worried the heavy downpours could lead to fungal attacks.
"It has been raining almost every other day and the trees are fruiting and looking fresh. This should mean more production for farmers this year than the previous year," Ojo told Reuters on Thursday by phone from the south-west town of Akure, capital of Nigerias top cocoa growing state of Ondo.
The rainfall has increased soil moisture for the trees, while the sunshine has enhanced flowering and fast development of pods for the April-September mid crop, Ojo said. But the threat of black pod disease hangs heavy and an outbreak could dash hopes of a bumper harvest because heavy rains wash away chemicals from trees when they are sprayed.
The disease affects 30-40 percent of Nigerias annual cocoa output, estimated at about 300,000 tonnes by CAN, while pests hit around 25 percent, experts say. "People are already looking for pesticides and fungicides to spray trees in case of an outbreak of black pod," Ojo said.
Nigeria is the worlds No 4 cocoa grower, and its mid crop - also known as the light crop - comes in at 50,000-60,000 tonnes when weather conditions are good and chemicals are available. But the chemicals are scare and expensive, and most Nigerian cocoa farmers are poor, despite rising local prices induced by a weakening local naira currency against the US dollar.
Many are unable to afford farm inputs. "Farmers will have problems with inputs because a chemical that is selling for 250 naira ($1.67) per sachet now, sold for 105 naira this time last year. That is an increase of nearly 140 percent," commodity analyst Robo Adhuze said. Dealers said the market was also awash with adulterated chemicals which some farmers are procuring because they cannot afford genuine ones, meaning most plantations would not be properly protected.