Cotton futures crumbled from investor liquidation to end lower on Thursday and the weak tone of the market may lead to further losses in the coming sessions, brokers said. The key May cotton contract dropped 0.62 cent to end at 43.96 cents per lb, dealing between 43.72 and 44.94 cents. On Monday, the contract finished at 45.03 cents in the highest close for cotton since mid-February.
July fell 0.68 cent to finish at 44.89 cents. Volume traded in the May contract was at 9,426 lots at 2:46 pm EDT (1846 GMT). "Market got into trouble as the spec buying was insufficient to counter the overhead hedge selling," Mike Stevens, an analyst for brokers SFS Futures in Mandeville, Louisiana, said.
"However, when merchants were unwilling to chase prices lower, sufficient short covering moved prices just enough to avoid the sell signal that would have been generated by the outside range day to the downside," he added. Analysts said market players are also completing position adjustments ahead of next Tuesdays release of the US Agriculture Departments annual potential plantings data on March 31.
Most commercial players believe 2009 US cotton plantings will range from 8.3 to 9.0 million acres, down from last years 9.4 million. The industry group National Cotton Council pegged in its annual survey last February US 2009 cotton sowings at 8.1 million acres. The USDAs outlook board forecast it at 8.5 million. Separately, the USDAs weekly export sales data showed US cotton sales at 353,600 running bales (RBs, 500-lbs each), from last weeks 218,300 RBs and trade belief it would range from 150,000 to 200,000 RBs.
Brokers Flanagan Trading Corp sees resistance in the May contract at 44.75 and 45.60 cents, with support at 43.60 and 42.75 cents. Volume traded Wednesday reached 6,946 contracts, from the previous tally of 9,221 lots, exchange data showed. Open interest in the cotton market was at 138,142 lots as of March 25, from the prior tally of 137,552 lots, it said.