Germany's car scrap subsidy and a later Easter eased the scale of a slump for Czech producers in March, but output still dropped at a double-digit pace and the outlook remains grim, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The median estimate in a poll of 15 analysts showed March industrial output falling by 14 percent, an improvement from a 23.4 percent decline in the previous month. A flash estimate of output - the first time the statistical bureau will release the fast data - is due out between 9 and 10 am on Thursday, before the full report on May 12.
Germany and the UK are among those to introduce premiums paid to motorists for buying new cars while dumping old models, benefiting producers like Volkswagen's Skoda Auto unit, which is the Czech Republic's biggest company. However, the central European country will still see a decline in gross domestic product in all four quarters this year, Jac said.
The Finance Ministry predicted a 2.3 percent economic drop this year on Wednesday, but the International Monetary Fund has forecast a 3.5 percent contraction. The Czechs have weathered the global financial sector crisis well but they have been deeply hit by the consequent slump in European demand. Exports equal to about 70 percent of Czech exports, and are a key source of growth, similar to the Hungarian economy.
Poland, the region's biggest country with nearly four times the Czechs' 10.5 million population, has been more sheltered and official forecasts still see minimal growth this year. Inflation should resume a downward trend in April, scoring 2.0 percent year-on-year after a surprising pick-up to 2.3 percent in March, the poll showed.