Aussie & NZ$ struggle, bond futures hit record high

WELLINGTON/SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled on Thursday after a poor German bond sale and worrie
24 Nov, 2011

Rush to safety pushes Aussie 10-year debt futures to an all-time high. The 10-year contract jumps 0.055 points to 96.120, after briefly touching a peak of 96.170 to imply an yield of 3.83 percent.

Three-year contract up 0.07 points to 97.000, having peaked as high as 97.030.

The Aussie dollar on the defensive at $0.9708, after sliding more than one pct to a seven-week trough of $0.9664 overnight.

No respite in sight for the Aussie, even after having lost nearly 8 pct this month. It is on track to reverse all of October's $0.9388-$1.0753 rally, having briefly pierced through the 78.6 pct retracement at $0.9680.

Support at $0.9680 with hourly resistance at $0.9725/30, ahead of $0.9750, with US Thanksgiving holiday keeping trading very thin.

NZ dollar at $0.7405, having plumbed an eight-month low of $0.7387. Kiwi looks set to test the lower Bollinger band of $$0.7377, then $0.7361 with resistance sitting around $0.7515.

Kiwi unmoved by trade data, which showed annual trade surplus narrow further in October as the country posted its third monthly deficit.

Murky global outlook pushes markets to firmly bet on one rate cut by March next year, with a 19 pct risk that will happen next month.

The Antipodeans also battered against the yen, with the Aussie near seven-week lows at 74.85 yen. Kiwi slips to 57.08 yen, a touch above its lowest since March.

Investors unnerved by a very weak German bond sale, renewed worries of a rating downgrade for France and a slowing factory growth in China.

NZ's general election on Saturday, with markets gearing up for no change in government as the ruling National Party has a commanding lead in the polls. Yet it is unclear whether it will have an outright majority or need minor party support.

NZ government bonds firmer on safe-haven demand, with yields down two basis points across the curve, not far from record lows. Two-year bond yield at 2.425 pct, near trough of 2.415 pct struck this week.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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