Drought is expected to cut Hungary's wheat crop to 4 million tonnes maximum this year from 5.6 million in 2008 and continued arid conditions could damage cereals further, agricultural think tank MGSZH said on Friday. MGSZH, a state-run body providing regular crop forecasts for the agriculture ministry, said a lack of sufficient rain since March 20 had also damaged rapeseed and a decline of similar proportions was likely in that crop as well.
Hungary harvested 0.66 million tonnes of rapeseed last year. "Based on preliminary surveys, we can expect a maximum of 4 million tonnes in wheat compared to a crop of 5.6 million tonnes last year," MGSZH agricultural head of department Jozsef Lukacs told Reuters in emailed response to questions. Data by the agriculture ministry showed that rainfall over the past 30 days was up to 59 mm below the seasonal average in Hungary's main crop lands and dry conditions were forecast for the next seven days as well.
"This weather has significantly weakened crop prospects in autumn cereals and among them autumn wheat," Lukacs said. "In contrast to last year's good crop results, the drought can cause a significant decline in every type of cereal."
Hungary, one of central Europe's main wheat and maize exporters, had a bumper grains crop last year but the lack of rain will cut this year's cereals crop heavily and a lack of sufficient rain this month could damage the crop further. Lukacs said even if significant amounts of precipitation fell in the rest of May that would not undo the damage already done to most cereals. "However, it could prevent further crop losses," he said.
He said it was untimely to give a crop estimate for maize, sown later than wheat, but ample rain in May could significantly improve the crop outlook. "Meteorologists forecast summery conditions again for the weekend even though we would badly need copious amounts of precipitation for both autumn and spring-sown crops," Lukacs said. "Currently there is a shortage of about 100-120 mm of moisture in the soil."