Much needed rains have boosted prospects for wheat crops in western Europe but drought remains a major concern in more central areas with Hungary and Romania among the hardest hit, crop analysts said on Thursday. "The wheat looks beautiful. The current rainfall is a good thing as long as it doesn't last," said Christian Vanier, expert at French farm office FranceAgriMer.
French analyst Strategie Grains also considered the rain as favourable for yields after a hot and dry month of May during which rainfall was 30 percent below average, according to data by French weather forecaster Meteo France and the farm ministry.
"We needed more rain, it's positive," said Sophie Medge, crop analyst at Strategie Grains. Strategie Grains, in its report due next week, is expected to keep its French wheat harvest estimate nearly unchanged from the 36.3 million pegged in May. But the analyst said it will again cut its forecast of the European Union's soft wheat crop, currently at 128.9 million tonnes, due to persistent dry weather in the eastern part of the bloc.
"We are heading towards a significant yields drop in Romania and Hungary due to drought," Medge said. In May, the analyst pegged the Hungarian 2009 soft wheat crop at 4.65 million tonnes, down from 5.62 million in 2008, while the 2009 Romanian crop was expected at 4.58 million tonnes, well below the 6.60 million tonnes harvested last year. In Germany, repeated rains this week provided needed moisture and boosted the outlook for the harvest.
"The rain was especially welcome in northern areas where there had been concern about dryness and concern about loss of yields will be greatly reduced," one analyst said. The Association of German Farming Co-operatives forecasts Germany's key winter wheat crop this summer at 24.5 million tonnes, down from last year's bumper crop of 25.7 million tonnes. "Rain this week probably means that such estimates will be pushed up slightly," a trader said.
In Britain, low soil moisture levels remained a concern. "Although we have had some recent rain it is still very dry in the eastern parts of the country. That is still quite serious on the lighter land," said analyst Susan Twining of crop consultants ADAS.
"We are beginning to see signs of drought on some of the crops but generally speaking on the heavier land crops are in good shape," she added. Farm consultants Andersons this week forecast this year's UK wheat crop at 14.3 million tonnes, down from a record 17.2 million in 2008 with the decline driven by declines in both planted area and yields.
Russia, which is finishing its spring sowing, officially expects to harvest up to 90 million tonnes of grain this year, down from 108.1 million in 2008. Analysts and producers forecast a higher crop close to 100 million tonnes. The Russian Hydrometeorological Centre said the state of plantings in the European part of Russia is good or satisfactory.
Frequent rains in May kept the soil moisture level steady except for some regions around the Volga river. In the Asian part of Russia, soil moisture content is sufficient for normal development of plants in all regions but in the southern part of Eastern Siberia. Weather conditions in June are expected to be satisfactory in both European and Asian part of the country, it said.