President Obama has arrived in the Helmand river valley, not physically, but as the opening phase of his much vaunted new US strategy to chase out and win the elusive victory in Afghanistan. Some 4000 Marines, with 650 Afghan soldiers in tow, stormed the Taliban positions early Thursday morning and within hours of their landing, captured the district headquarters of Garmsir and Nawah.
There was hardly any resistance as the Taliban are said to have melted into the countryside, much against their leaders' promise to fight back and defeat the Americans. Taliban leaders' confidence may not be entirely misplaced, given the fact that over the last three years they had been able to put up a dogged fight back against the British troops, grinding to a halt the Nato offensive. But now, thanks to President Obama's opening shot "Half of the objectives have been secured by nightfall, ahead of schedule," says the US Marines' spokesman.
One may wonder why Obama administration selected the Helmand river valley. The place is the bastion of Taliban power and also serves as the militia's planning and training centre.
For several years now, it was in the Taliban's control, with the Kabul government having virtually no writ in that region. Instead of engaging the Taliban in skirmishes here and there the new US administration, it appears, has decided to confront the adversary head on with full force. Its Operation Khanjer (dagger) is rightly then a massive ground and air assault - fondly described by an American commander as the 'D-day moment'. The plans appears to be that once the area has been cleared of the Taliban, the US military would hold on to the land and fully restore the writ of the Kabul government.
The objective seems to be, to put on the ground, a model for things to come in the wake of presidential elections in August. And as an additional incentive, the US government would have no objection to locals retaining their poppy-growing business, which is the only source of living for most of the inhabitants of the Helmand river valley, the world's largest opium producing region.
That the Taliban did not confront the US Marines' massive assault is no big surprise. Hit-and-run, is what the insurgents normally do; they do not engage themselves in large-scale frontal fights with regular armies.
However, it is a matter of opinion whether the Americans would hold on to the ground in Helmand long enough that the Kabul government puts down its roots in the area and earns the confidence of the local non-combatant civilian population as its protector against the ubiquitous Taliban. On the face of it, Obama administration seems determined to stay put in Afghanistan till the Afghan government acquires confidence and competence to be in a position to replace the Marines. But will that happen? If past experience is any guide, one would be skeptical. The fact is that in the southern and eastern regions of Afghanistan, the Taliban are strongly entrenched, as they enjoy local support and when needed melt down into local population.
Some of them may even cross over to Pakistan, but their number cannot be high. Rightly so, the deployment of Pakistan army units in the area adjacent to the Helmand province has been rearranged, but no additional troops are expected to be called. The key question remains: Will Americans stay there long enough to wait out the Taliban. We have no plausible answer to this question, except for recalling a comment by a Taliban leader: "While the Americans have the watches, we have the time".