Wikipedia had Karachi population estimated at 27.5 million till last week. That was bordering on ridiculous. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has put it at 14.9 million. That is half of Wikipedia, and almost half as ridiculous.
Key political stakeholders in Karachi, including the Sindh government, have been quick to out rightly reject the Karachi census findings. Granted, there are vested interests involved in most cases, but even for quite a number of neutral non-Karachi based observant and experts, 14.9 million for Karachi seems way off. An expert, speaking to BR Research on condition of anonymity, fell just short of calling it a conspiracy.
Reasons are mostly based on observation, as more detailed numbers are awaited to pass a more educated comment or analysis. But consider this. Forget percentage change, Lahore has added more people in absolute terms since 1998 than Karachi. All this while, Karachi is believed to have witnessed a huge influx from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and South Punjab. And that can be seen by everyone and anyone roaming in Karachi.
“Lahore has not been historically known for being too welcoming to migrants”, said a subject expert. Lahore has surely attracted people from neighbouring cities, but the KP and South Punjab influx is nowhere near as big in Lahore, as it is in Karachi. Also recall that Punjab government had subtly indicated at not being ready to accept the war-hit and flood-hit IDPs. Karachi, on the other hand, received more than its fair share of IDPs, and scores of them have settled since.
Unfortunately, there are not many studies available on city based fertility, mortality or migration trends. But, going by the PBS numbers, fertility rate in Karachi is either going in an entirely different direction from Lahore, or there have been no migrants to Karachi. None of it could be entirely true. Karachi in the last decade has grown in all directions, especially vertical. The infrastructure deterioration, speaks volumes of it, besides the usual criminal negligence of the authorities.
Karachi’s marked area at 3527 square kilometer is double than Lahore. Back in 1998, Karachi and Lahore had almost equal ratio of persons per household, with Lahore having a slight edge. The gap has widened since, as seen in the table. Interestingly, of the additional 5.5 and 5.9 million people in both cities, the ratio varies even higher, at 5.8 for Lahore versus 4.6 for Karachi. Roam around Karachi for a day and try swallowing that!
There are voices suggesting there is nothing fishy in the data, citing law and order differences in both cities. Granted that it could be a factor, but then Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has not exactly set the law and order scene on fire, yet witnessed highest growth amongst all provinces. The argument lacks consistency.
Electricity connections are used by some as a yardstick. So Karachi has 1.75 million domestic consumers. Going by the latest household number of 2.57 million, nearly one-third of households have no electricity connections. That seems untrue, going by official estimate of 94 percent Karachites having access to electricity. Multiply the number of consumers by PBS’ own average person per household, Karachi’s population stops at 10 million.
Want more evidence why electricity connections are not the benchmark? Here you go. Lahore has 2.7 million electricity consumers – a staggering million more than Karachi. By this token, Lahore should be a city of close to 18 million people. Account for 10 percent error either side, it makes no sense. Detailed statistics should provide greater insight and probably address some of these concerns, or give more credence to doubts and questions. For now, Karachi’s population needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, and those rejecting, need not be brushed aside. Not especially, when sensitive decisions such as constituency demarcation and NFC awards will bank on these findings. Karachi can ill-afford another round of violence and unrest.