Global commodity prices diverge amid recovery hopes

30 Aug, 2009

The prices of raw materials were mixed last week in cautious trade despite increased signs of global economic recovery. The US economy, the world's biggest, appeared to hold on its path of recovery from deep recession as output shrank at an un-revised 1.0 percent pace in the second quarter, government data showed on Thursday.
But doubts about a global economic turnaround resurfaced Friday as Japan's unemployment rate hit a record high. The jobless rate in the world's second largest economy rose to a worse than expected 5.7 percent in July, up from 5.4 percent in June, the Japanese government said.
OIL: New York oil prices spiked to 75.00 dollars a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in 10 months after strong US consumer confidence data, but fell back on profit-taking after failing to break through the key barrier. "It was very much a knee-jerk reaction," said Hanson Westhouse analyst David Hart, adding that there was a lack of buying interest to maintain prices above 75 dollars.
"The logical conclusion to draw is that prices are going to go higher," he added. US consumer confidence rose more than expected in August after two consecutive months of declines, buoyed by a jump in recovery hopes for the coming months, the Conference Board announced on Tuesday. The business research firm said its consumer confidence index climbed to 54.1 in August from an upwardly revised 47.4 in July. The rebound in confidence was stronger than the 47.9 reading most analysts had expected.
"Consumer confidence is very closely tied to the US economy - 70 percent of the economy is driven by consumer spending, and if the consumer is feeling better then that bodes well for the economy - which is good for energy demand," said analyst Hart. Oil prices went on to lose ground on Wednesday after official data showed a surprise jump in crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest energy consuming nation, indicating flagging demand.
The US Department of Energy said American crude stockpiles rose 200,000 barrels to 343.8 million in the week ending August 21, confounding expectations for a 600,000-barrel drop. Crude futures rebounded Thursday after two days of losses, lifted by a weaker dollar late in the session and rallying US share prices.
Oil also won support this week from a weaker dollar, which makes dollar-priced crude cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies and therefore tends to stimulate demand and lift prices. By Friday on London's InterContinental Exchange (ICE), Brent North Sea crude for delivery in October slid to 72.85 dollars a barrel from 74.32 dollars a week earlier. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), light sweet crude for October dropped to 72.70 dollars a barrel from 73.97 dollars.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold prices profited from a weaker dollar while platinum and palladium won "support from the ongoing supply disruptions in South Africa", said Barclays Capital analyst Suki Cooper. By late Friday on the London Bullion Market, gold advanced to 955.50 dollars an ounce from 952.50 dollars a week earlier.
Silver climbed to 14.54 dollars an ounce from 14.01 dollars. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum gained to 1,243 dollars an ounce at the late fixing on Friday from 1,239 dollars. Palladium jumped to 290.25 dollars an ounce from 275 dollars.
BASE METALS: Base metals prices rallied, with copper reaching a ten-month high and lead the highest level for more than a year. "Concerns over (lead) supply, owing to potential closures of plants in China supported prices," said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg. By Friday on the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months jumped to 6,518 dollars a tonne from 6,105 dollars a week earlier.
-- Three-month aluminium was unchanged at 1,925 dollars a tonne.
-- Three-month lead grew to 2,130 dollars a tonne from 1,846 dollars.
-- Three-month tin increased to 14,175 dollars a tonne from 14,050 dollars.
-- Three-month zinc climbed to 1,887 dollars a tonne from 1,820 dollars.
-- Three-month nickel advanced to 19,525 dollars a tonne from 19,100 dollars.
SUGAR: Sugar prices rebounded but remained under 28-year highs of 589.90 pounds a tonne reached in early August. Global sugar prices are forecast to stay high in the coming year on tight supplies of the commodity in major consumer India. "Domestic stocks in India have been drawn down markedly, and demand is likely to stay robust," said Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan.
By Friday on Liffe, London's futures exchange, the price of a tonne of white sugar for delivery in October rose to 565.90 pounds from 556.40 pounds a week earlier. On the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT), the price of unrefined sugar for October gained to 22.91 US cents a pound from 22.25 cents.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Soya, maize and wheat prices all rose. "Newsflow over recent days has been most supportive for the soybean market with a continued robust level of US export demand, especially from China, and a planned week-long strike starting today (Friday) announced by Argentine farmers," said Unnikrishnan. Drought in Australia meanwhile supported wheat prices, traders said.
By Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade, maize for delivery in December rose to 3.31 dollars a bushel from 3.26 dollars a week earlier. November-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - climbed to 10.07 dollars from 9.73 dollars. Wheat for December advanced to 5.05 dollars a bushel from 4.87 dollars.
COCOA: Cocoa prices ended the week lower. "The weakness came against... the publication of a reputable crop report which forecast a slight increase in the Ivory Coast main crop," said Sucden brokers analyst Stephanie Garner. By Friday on Liffe, the price of cocoa for delivery in December fell to 1,818 pounds a tonne from 1,881 pounds a week earlier. On the NYBOT, the December cocoa contract dropped to 2,811 dollars a tonne from 2,977 dollars.
COFFEE: Coffee prices traded mixed. By Friday on Liffe, Robusta for delivery in November climbed to 1,415 dollars a tonne from 1,362 dollars a week earlier. On the NYBOT, Arabica for December slid to 123.10 US cents a pound from 127.30 cents.
RUBBER: Malaysian rubber prices rose on buying momentum from major consumers in China and Hong Kong and owing to tight supplies because of rainy weather, dealers said. On Friday, the Malaysian Rubber Board's benchmark SMR20 climbed to 195.80 US cents a kilo from 192.65 US cents a week earlier.

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