PPP says it will complete its 5-year term at the center. PML-N says it has no desire to destabilise the PPP government but at times talks about the possibility of mid-term polls. Big brother America will probably also not want a political upheaval at a time when, in its view, with our army pitted against a section of the population, things are moving in the right direction.
On the other hand, people are unhappy. Every month more essentials go out of reach of the majority of the people as staple items of every day use become luxuries. Load shedding deprives people of income as well as sleep. At the same time, there is no sign that the rulers are tightening their belts. Scenes of people struggling, fainting and getting hurt, even dying in scuffles, to get a few kilos of flour or sugar at a small subsidy are seen frequently on TV and reported in the print media.
The matter of soaring (400 % in two years) corruption is not just a Transparency International reporting phenomenon. It is directly confirmed by the people, at large, from actual experience in their dealings with government functionaries. Media is full of stories of corruption by politicians, ministers and vested interests and the government appears to be unwilling or unable to do much about them.
How long will the people be content with protest marches here and there? Will not their desperation and hopelessness lead to a massive upheaval and become a movement for mid-term elections? It may, therefore, be pertinent to take a closer look at the state of preparedness and prospects of our two major political parties should a mid-term election actually materialise and even otherwise.
PML-N PROSPECTS
PML-N announced plans the other day to reorganise the party and to start a recruitment drive. One wonders what was holding it all these years. The party has a sizeable following, but it is built around the person of its leader Nawaz Sharif, and not around the party, one with well-defined objectives and a clearly articulated policy on how to go about achieving them. A grass roots presence, knit together by a party apparatus is altogether absent.
No wonder a sizeable protest gathering could not be generated on the streets of Islamabad when Nawaz Sharif was unceremoniously put on a flight back to Saudi Arabia (whence he had just arrived) soon after landing at the airport last year! The large procession which followed him in March this year on the streets of Lahore, in support of the "deposed" CJP Chaudhry, owed much of its size and vigour to several factors other than Nawaz Sharif's political clout.
Characteristically, under the aforesaid reorganisation plan of the party, "all disciplines of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) have been dissolved and their office-bearers discharged. Mian Nawaz Sharif has been appointed chairman of the central organising committee until new party elections" and "at the PML (N) meeting held in Bhurban on Monday, six resolutions were approved regarding the party elections". There was no indication about when the last elections were held.
That surely was ages ago, if at all. The application form for membership of the party on the party's website commits the applicant to follow the party's manifesto and principles. However, very little is known about these since apart from generalities and cliché and political give and take, not much is heard at party caucuses about manifesto or principles or vision.
The party must also worry about its relatively narrow base confined to Punjab. It is a matter of some surprise that no effort is visible on the part of the party to establish or enhance its presence in Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan. Much earlier in 2009 (or was it in late 2008) a visit by Nawaz Sharif to interior Sindh was announced, but was inexplicably cancelled.
Nawaz Sharif and PML-N have to worry in particular about the baggage, the party chief carries. Matters relating to this baggage will continue to haunt both in any future give and take and certainly in the period leading to the next general elections in the country.
Reverberation of the famous attack on the Supreme Court in November 1997, when Nawaz Sharif was Prime Minister, recorded by Supreme Court cameras in vivid footage showing Mushahid Hussein (then Minister in Nawaz Sharif's cabinet), Saifur Rahman and other cronies in "assault", will be recalled with telling effect, especially when Nawaz Sharif or his party attempt to occupy the high moral ground in the inevitable give and take.
Sajjad Ali Shah, then Chief Justice of Pakistan, it will be recalled, was trying a case against Nawaz Sharif at the time. Another matter that will keep coming up, will be alleged attempts by Nawaz Sharif to pressurise Malik Abdul Qayyum (then Chief Justice Lahore High Court) to award maximum sentences to Benazir and Asif Zardari. Transcripts of alleged long telephonic calls from Saifur Rahman and members of the judiciary at the time to Malik Abdul Qayyum in this connection were published by a leading newspaper.
Nawaz Sharif and his party are sure to hear more about these in the days to come. Yet another matter which will keep surfacing as political debates heats up is the matter of the allegedly Saudi-brokered and guaranteed "deal" under which Nawaz Sharif was allowed to leave the prison in Pakistan for a life of apparent comfort in Saudi Arabia. Explanations given to date about some unsavoury parts of the deal have not been found to be satisfactory and a fuller explanation of the whole drama will be sought.
Nawaz Sharif, who appears to have mid term elections in some corner if not in the center of his mind, will need to brace himself for at least some of the above downsides in store. He should not sit smug with polls showing his popularity at over 60 % vis-à-vis Zardari's 30% or so. This is more a reflection of people's disillusionment with Zardari than an endorsement of his (Nawaz Sharif's) person and policies.
Shahbaz Sharif's performance as chief minister of Punjab will be a significant positive for PML-N in any future elections, especially in Punjab. Alone among the four Chief Ministers he has emerged as a hands-on, pro-active administrator.
PPP PROBLEMS PPP is arguably the biggest political part in the country, with a very large number of party workers and a reach across the length and breadth of the country. This gives it an edge over other parties in any general election scenario. Once that is said, it must be added nevertheless that the party is beset with problems, no less serious than PML-N's.
Part of its problems can be traced to the way it was run under the father and daughter Bhuttos. While the father always crushed any dissent from his views and actions by any party man with an iron hand, often with great cruelty, the daughter's intolerance of dissent took the form of completely sidelining and ignoring the party man concerned. The effect in either case was the same: a confident, competent and popular second tier (an exception or two apart) did not materialise.
Under the circumstances, when BB was assassinated, her spouse entered smoothly into the role of the party chief as per her wishes (as claimed) as there was no heir apparent in sight for reasons cited above. The party continues to suffer from dearth of credible leaders.
Asif Zardari has his "kitchen cabinet", which includes Rahman Malik, Qamar Zaman Kaira, Farooq Naek and Fauzia Wahab and a couple of other trusted lieutenants whose defence of their chief in the Media borders on fanaticism! The likes of Aitzaz Ahsan, Raza Rabbani and Sherry Rahman are ignored or shunted out for being capable of independent thinking or having views different from the party chief.
Yet another confidant who belongs in a different category is Governor Salman Taseer, a thorn planted in the side of the Shahbaz Sharif's government of Punjab! This, however, is a problem of Zardari's creation and not a problem to be faced by him. The baggage carried by Zardari as a person is no less serious than that carried by Nawaz Sharif.
While Mumtaz Bhutto does not tire of referring to properties of all kinds imaginable around the world allegedly owned by Zardari, Imran Khan keeps talking of his fortune at Rs 100 billion. The facts behind the Surrey Palace's alleged return to him will also be fodder for the election gunnery. Unless the accusers are proved wrong and taken to task for making false accusations (if indeed they are false), doubts will linger and cloud election prospects for the party.
The alleged deal between Musharraf and Benazir, brokered by big brother America and our benefactors in Saudi Arabia will also haunt the election scenario. The time given by the Judiciary to the Parliament to decide on the ordinances promulgated by President Musharraf is fast running out. The fate of the infamous NRO, which lets off the rich and the powerful, guilty of big wrongs, while petty wrong doers must suffer just and unjust punishment, arising from the delay in the disposal of their cases, hangs in balance with the Supreme Court.
Asif Zardari's handling of the investigation of Benazir's assassination is another matter, which has given rise to misgivings. Referring such a sensitive matter to United Nations and that too with very limited terms of reference raised eyebrows. So did, much earlier, his decision not to allow post mortem examination of BB's body, as also his statement that he knew who the assassin was. Mumtaz Bhutto raises the question of motivation and beneficiary whenever he gets a chance to speak on the subject.
Loss of credibility suffered by Asif Zardari, due to his outright refusal or foot-dragging in honouring solemn, political commitments will continue to be an issue, which will, in addition, prove an impediment in the way of any future agreements that may be attempted, for instance to form new alliances or reach new understandings with other political entities.
Asif Zardari's excessive concern for his personal safety had had the effect of isolating him not only from people at large but also from the rank and file of his own party. It is said that visitors to the Presidential palace in Islamabad have to pass through four security rings before they can meet him in person! Perhaps the President has reasons for taking such precautions, its political fallout notwithstanding.
Public polls regularly show Asif Zardari's popularity in terms of perception of his performance as President and head of the government at no time above 30% compared to twice that percentage for Nawaz Sharif. Although Pakistan has a tradition of governments loosing favour with the people as time passes, figures this low must be worrisome for the President and his party.
The President spends a full quarter of his time abroad, begging for help but to little effect, while his junkets cost this much indebted country billions of rupees but there is nothing to show for all the jet-setting: our finance minister reveals that only a small amount of money has been received as grant, the rest being soft and high interest loans. One might therefore be forgiven for questioning the purpose or even the motive for these visits. Drone attacks which started while Musharraf was President have increased exponentially during the PPP government.
Three aspects of this phenomenon are extremely damaging for the PPP government. One, the infringement on our national sovereignty by a country which claims close friendship with us. Two: perhaps thirty to fifty civilians are killed in this death from above, for every "terrorist" claimed to have been eliminated. Three: the government and our top leaders have lied shamelessly about these attacks.
While protesting to Americans about the attacks, they have, on the sly, given a go ahead to them and have also provided take off facility from our soil. The sugar crisis, widely believed to have been caused by ministers, leaders of opposition parties (who own many sugar mills) and hoarders and the government's failure to take effective and timely counter measures have made people very angry.
The humiliation and fatigue suffered by poor people standing for hours to get a few kilos of sugar or rice, at rates less than the market rate, but still higher than the rates prevailing a few months ago have added insult to injury, which will not be forgotten soon. A federal minister has been blamed for wanting to award contracts for Rental Power Plants in an underhand manner and buying expensive real estate in London with kickbacks.
THE TASK AHEAD Both parties will do well to organise themselves along democratic lines, to clear misunderstandings, to think over past mistakes and misdeeds, and, as appropriate, to offer apologies, to make amends wherever possible and to set themselves on a course which will prevent repetition of errors of the past and to ensure, moreover, that all this is done in a transparent manner.
(owajid@yahoo.com)