Afghanistan has begun contingency plans for a potential run-off to its deeply controversial presidential election as officers recount hundreds of thousands of suspect votes, officials said Friday. The Independent Election Commission (IEC), which has come under fire for favouring incumbent Hamid Karzai, who leads a preliminary vote count, had previously denied that any preparations were being made for a run-off.
Afghans voted on August 20 for a new president in only the second such election in their history and one held amid a vicious Taliban insurgency against the Western-backed government which deterred voters. The IEC released preliminary results this week giving Karzai a majority of 54.6 percent - beyond the threshold of 50 percent plus one vote needed to avoid a run-off - and former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah 27.8 percent.
Abdullah has called for a run-off against Karzai, whom he accuses of massive vote-rigging and observers have suggested that recounts of suspect votes could slim down Karzai's margin enough to force a second round. The UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) ordered recounts at more than 2,500 polling stations, around 10 percent of the total, after it found "clear and convincing evidence of fraud".
EU observers also identified 1.5 million votes that could be fraudulent - nearly a quarter of the total valid votes, and 1.1 of them cast for Karzai. "If a run-off takes place, we will be ready. We cannot wait, we have started getting ready," an IEC official told AFP on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information. "Our colleagues are now in London, where they have designed and prepared the ballot papers to be printed for the run-off," the official added.
"We are printing the ballot papers in London for safety reasons, we could print them in Afghanistan but we decided not to do so to avoid fraud that could just undermine the run-off process." Karzai told a televised news conference on Thursday that any fraud during the August 20 elections was minimal - and normal - promising to respect any decision made by the IEC once investigations are complete.
The IEC has the power to call for a run-off or declare a victor, once all investigations are complete - which officials involved in the process say will take another two to three weeks. Under Afghan electoral law, a run-off should take place within two weeks of the final results being announced. One Western official working with electoral authorities said Friday that mid-October seemed most likely.
Any later than early November and the weather would be too severe in mountainous regions, and a run-off would have to wait until early next year. Observers warn such a long wait would exacerbate the political stalemate, benefiting Islamist insurgents who have already exploited the government's weakness to steal a march across the country. The Taliban's talent for breaching Kabul's heavy security was demonstrated yet again Thursday, when a massive suicide car bomb killed 10 Afghan civilians and six Italian soldiers not far from the US embassy.
Colonel Fabio Mattiassi, spokesman for the Italian contingent serving in Nato in Afghanistan, said the bodies would be repatriated on Saturday after a prayer service at Kabul's military airport. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said Italy now wanted to cut down its deployment in Afghanistan, but only with agreement from Nato partners.
French Defence Minister Herve Morin, on a short trip to Afghanistan, called on Italy not to withdraw its troops in reaction to the deaths. "I understand very well the sadness, the sorrow and the emotion of the Italian people expressed by Silvio Berlusconi but, at the same time, I want to say that one should not give in to hasty emotion," he said.
The bombing, claimed by the Taliban, was the third in Kabul in a month and appears part of an emerging pattern of attacks on international military installations and personnel in the capital. Foreign military deaths in Afghanistan are at record levels - 357 this year, according to icasualties.org - and the mounting number of body bags coming home has sent support for the war plummeting in Europe and the US.