Mauritius should see economic growth of 2.7 percent this year, up from a 2.5 percent forecast in June, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Wednesday. The CSO also amended its estimate for 2008 GDP growth to 5.0 percent from 5.3 percent, due mainly to a downward revision in food crops.
This year's revised forecast mirrored the central bank's view that the Indian Ocean nation's economy would grow marginally stronger than expected this year, with a robust second half recovery seen continuing into 2010. "On the basis of latest information gathered on key sectors of the economy and available data for the first semester of 2009, GDP is now forecast to grow by 2.7 percent, higher than the 2.5 percent growth forecast in June 2009," it said.
Far from its export markets and vulnerable to external shocks, the island's economy has slowed as demand is squeezed in its key sectors. The textile sector is seen contracting by 4 percent this year. Tourism earnings are expected to fall by 12.65 percent to 36 billion rupees ($1.15 billion) following the economic slowdown in core European markets, the CSO said in a report.
Founded on sugar and textiles, the $9 billion economy has diversified into high-end tourism, IT business outsourcing and offshore banking. But the global downturn has slowed growth from an average of 5 percent or above over the last three years. "Financial intermediation (is expected) to grow at a lower rate of 5.9 percent compared to 10.1 percent in 2008, mostly explained by lower banking activities," the CSO said. Private sector investment will decline by 2.2 percent this year compared to 10.0 percent growth in 2008.
Public sector investment is seen rebounding by 47.5 percent in 2009 - after falling 17.9 percent in 2008 - following a 10.4 billion rupee stimulus package unveiled last December. The central bank expects growth to exceed 4 percent in 2010, although some analysts said the continued uncertain economic picture in the island's main export markets meant it was too early to be confident of hitting the bank's forecast.