Pest and virus attacks would cut country's cotton output by 10 to 15 per cent this year to about 12 million bales against the target of 13.36 million bales, which would result in more import to meet domestic demand, industry officials said.
Despite a late monsoon, Pakistan, the world's fourth-largest cotton producer, hoped to meet its target in the crop year ending in March, but pest attacks and a recent hot spell in Punjab made it impossible, the officials said. "According to various estimates it would be about 12 million bales, some people are saying it could be even less," President of Punjab cotton Brokers Association Mian Abdul Wahid said on Friday.
"The crop in Punjab, which was targeted to produce 10 million bales, has taken a hit by pest and Leaf Curl virus attacks. A hot spell that emerged in recent weeks, and is still continuing, is also not good for the crop." A food ministry official gave a similar estimate, saying output from Punjab was likely to fall by 10 to 15 per cent. The size of the crop would be known by the end of October.
Pakistan's cotton output in 2008/09 fell to 11.8 million bales, well below the target of 14.1 million bales, mainly because of the shortage of water, pest attacks and a 7.7 per cent cut in the area under cotton cultivation from the year before.
That area has been increased to 3.2 million hectares (7.9 million acres) this year, up from 2.8 million last year, but attacks by pests and cotton leaf curl virus (CLCV) have taken a toll. "Most hard hit are the crops in Multan, Khanewal, Bahawalpur and also Rahim Yar Khan in southern Punjab," said the food ministry official who declined to be identified, referring to areas which produce 70 per cent of the province's output.
"Planting in those areas is done in May and June when the weather is hot and crops are prone to pest and virus attacks." Another cotton trader Khawaja Muhammad Younas, said there had been significant damage to the crop in Punjab and even a recent "flowering" of plants would not make up for the damage caused by pests.
The other major cotton-growing province, Sindh in the south, had had a good crop and was expected to produce more than 3.5 million bales, compared with 3.1 million last year, Khawaja Younas said. Although a major grower, Pakistan often has to import cotton to meet the demand of its textile sector, which accounts for about 60 per cent of the country's exports. Domestic consumption fluctuates between 14 million and 16 million bales a year.