Copper is offering an enticing investment opportunity ahead of an anticipated recovery in consumption in 2010 after a correction brought prices down to levels more reflective of its supply/demand fundamentals. The price of the red metal used heavily in power and construction has roughly doubled in value since the start of 2009 due to speculative buying, economic optimism reflected in better-than-expected macro data, and record Chinese purchases.
After a number of unsuccessful attempts to break above a key $3.00 a lb level during the month of August, and again in mid-September, COMEX copper prices have drifted back this week toward the bottom of a two-month trading range near $2.66 a lb. But most in the market now expect industrial metal demand to receive a significant boost due to aggressive stimulus measures and infrastructure investment introduced by leading world economies particularly the United States and China.
Melek estimated the US has contributed about $80 billion to infrastructure within its $787 billion stimulus package. China's spending on infrastructure was seen up more than double during the first three months of the year from the same period in 2008, partly reflected by an increase in the country's Purchasing Manager's Index from 49 in February to 52.4 in March. "Beyond the short-term issues, longer-term, there are relatively few projects in the pipeline that could move this market into (an) over-supplied state," Melek said.