World cotton output is forecast to fall by 300,000 tonnes or 1 percent to 23.1 million tonnes in 2009/10 as an increase in average yields fail to compensate for a drop in production area, an international farm group said on Thursday. The International Cotton Advisory Committee secretariat said in a monthly report that a small recovery in the world economy will push demand higher by 2 percent in 2009/10 to 23.6 million tonnes.
ICAC said cotton mill use is forecast to improve in China, India, and Pakistan, after falling last year. Consumption is expected to decline in several European countries, the Americas, and East Asia. Exports are expected to rise to 6.9 million tonnes, an increase of 5 percent, in 2009/10, the ICAC said. Imports are forecast to increase in several countries including Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
US exports are projected down by 20 percent to 2.3 million tonnes due to increased competition from other countries, the ICAC said. Exports from India could rebound to 1.4 million tonnes. The season-average Cotlook A price index was forecast at 64 US cents/lb in 2009/10, an increase of 2.8 cents/lb or 5 percent from the 2008/09 average.