Indonesia's cocoa mid-crop is estimated at 185,000-200,000 tonnes this year, an increase of 14 percent from a year ago thanks to less rainfall which slowed the spread of diseases, an industry official said on Wednesday. A bigger mid-crop would lift annual output from the world's number three grower to about 590,000-600,000 tonnes for 2009, said Halim Abdul Razak, chairman of Indonesian Cocoa Association.
The record annual output was 600,000 tonnes in 2006. Indonesia's falling cocoa output in the previous two years and concerns over output prospects due to drier weather have provided some support for global cocoa prices, which have recovered from last year's drop.
The spread of deadly fungal disease, the Vascular Streak Dieback (VSD), was to blame for the fall in the last two years. It attacked cocoa trees across the main growing island of Sulawesi, helped by excessive rainfall. "The intensity of the spread of VSD has eased this year due to less rains," Razak said, adding that his estimate also took into account an increase in maturing trees in new growing areas, especially in Sumatra.
He said it was too early to predict what the impact would be of a possible return of El Nino on the 2010 crop as it would largely depend on the level of rainfall during the flowering season in January to February. Some traders said they also expected better crops with a quick recovery in global cocoa prices encouraging farmers to better manage their trees.
New York's December cocoa contract hit a 15-month high of $3,329 per tonne last week on improving grindings data. Local bean prices normally track futures. "We talked to some farmers who said they expect to sell more beans during this year's mid crop," said a trader at an exporting firm in Makassar, the capital of South Sulawesi province and the main port for cocoa exports on the island.