Pakistan currently faces a series of constant and excruciating problems, like, socio-economic, energy, security, political, uncertainty in Balochistan and NWFP, suicide bombing, US Drones attacks and the most awful circumstances of law and order situation in most areas of the country, and no doubt these are the result of unconditional support which Pakistan has extended to the US after 9/11.
To resolve these problems what has the US and international community done with Pakistan? Instead of co-operating with Pakistan, Obama has signalled in the election campaign that he will not shy away from taking action within Pakistan if necessary. Obama made clear that Pakistan's sovereignty is subservient to US interests, he would attack, with or without the approval of the Pakistani government, and he proved it through the drones.
In his first interview as president of United States, Obama said that he had no intention of sending US troops into Pakistan. But US troops are already in the country and US drones attack Pakistan regularly. The New York Times reported that the attacks were clear evidence that Obama is continuing, and in some cases extending, Bush administration policy.
In the first three month of 2009, more than 150 people were reportedly killed in these drone attacks and Pakistan suffered a current account deficit $13.866 billion and the inflation rate touched 23 percent and Pakistan was facing food shortages. In this situation, the only way to secure Pakistan from all these problems was the unconditional support of the International community.
But what the US do to improve the economic conditions of its frontline alley Pakistan except violating the sovereignty of the Pakistani Parliament by drone attacks on the day when the Parliament unanimously adopted a resolution against such attacks?
According to media reports, around 450 people were killed in 34 drone attacks in 2009. Due to these attacks private investors lost their trust in Pakistan. As per figure reported by the Economic and Trade Journal, the volume of private investment fell to $1.070 billion from $2.769 billions and the volume of Foreign Direct Investment dropped to $1.393 billion in July to February 2009 against $1.694 billion in eight months of the previous year.
Similarly, portfolio investment at local bourses posted a massive negative growth of -1,170.3pc, as recorded at $-902.3b during July-February FY09 against $84.3m in the said period of the last financial year. According to a media report, the total reserves of US $8.467 billion held by commercial banks stood at 3.461 billion dollars on September 23.
From September 22, the reserves fell by US $180 million and the cost estimated on the war on terror to Pakistan was around 484 billion during financial year 2007/08. It was time for US to extend their unconditional support toward Pakistan in reward for its loyalty against the war on terror but it seems that the US is working on an agenda to destabilise Pakistan, helping anti-Pakistan moves through India in Balochistan.
On 13 August 2004, the Chief Minister of Balochistan, Jam Muhammad Yousaf said, quoted by The Herald (September 2004-Karachi) that Indian secret services (RAW) were maintaining 40 terrorist camps all over Baloch territory and in the recent visit to Sharm el-Sheikh, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, gave proof of Indian intervention in Balochistan to the Indian counterpart. Instead of accepting this fact, top US military strategist in a meeting with the Indian army chief said that Pakistan has been fomenting terrorism in India.
Moreover, in the current visit to India, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has given certain statements on behalf of the foreign minister of India, that most of the 9/11 culprits are hiding inside Pakistan. She added that the Taliban might take control of Pakistani nukes and that the Pakistani people must act and fight against the Taliban to save their country.
She also suggested that, it is not India but terrorists inside Pakistan who are enemies of Pakistan. David Patreas and Richard Holbrook also expressed the same view during their recent visit to Pakistan, they stressed upon Pakistanis to forget about India as an enemy of Pakistan.
How will Americans accept the fact of Indian intervention in Balochistan when they have signed an agreement with India in late 2002 to disarm Pakistan's nuclear assets and as a result of this deal, Abdullah Mehsud was freed from Guantanamo Bay and sent to Pakistan with millions of dollars in cash to infiltrate Pakistan to target important religious places and military personalities, officers of the intelligence agencies with kidnapping of ambassadors, foreign journalists.
In a briefing given to the Senate by Interior Minister Rehman Malik disclosed some serious problems that Pakistan is facing from its arch-enemy India and the cold war antagonist Russia. Both these countries are actively involved in fuelling the insurgency in Balochistan. Russia is taking revenge for the cold war defeat at the hands of the Americans in Pakistan and today the same Americans are indirectly helping the Russians through their Afghan allies.
Despite the number of claims of the US government, through their Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke that the US would not leave Pakistan alone as it is passing through a most critical juncture, when Pakistan needed around $14 billion to cover the shortfall of the current financial year and for economic stability, the US left Pakistan at the will of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was established with the aim to provide financial assistance to all member countries facing financial problems.
In return for financial assistance, the member countries of the IMF are required to launch certain types of reforms aimed at improving the financial strength of their country. What did the IMF do for providing financial assistance to this South Asian country of 170 million peoples to meet its budget deficit and financial requirements?
The IMF executive Board with significant information about the situation of Pakistan, approved a $7.6 billion loan for Pakistan to stabilise and rebuild the economy with severe conditions which inter alia included devaluation of rupee, freezing of non-development expenditure under the defence budget for the last three quarters of the current financial year, non-provision of supplementary grants to government departments, ending subsidy on gas and electricity, reduction in non-development expenditure of civil departments and federal ministries, increase in mark-up rate of banks and on interbank transactions, uniformity in the interbank and open market dollar exchange rate and stoppage of government financial intervention in the stock markets, which instead of promoting long-term growth, economic stability will lead to an increase in poverty and inflation.
In response Pakistan's government assured the IMF of launching the economic programme, with two main objectives, first to restore overall economic stability and confidence through a tightening of macroeconomic policies, and second, to do so in a manner that ensures social stability and adequate support for the poor during the adjustment process.
I have failed to understand the strategy of IMF that on one hand they aim to provide adequate support to the poor and on the other, all the conditions imposed on Pakistan, directly or indirectly, hit the poor people, which creates frustration in the common man.
At a time when Pakistan is fighting with different challenges, especially the war against terrorism, which has affected around 1.5 million people in two months and Pakistan has suffered to the tune of $50 billion and is still fighting its own cost.
As a result, there was a record decrease in foreign exchange and foreign investment and consequently, Moody's has cut Pakistan's credit outlook from "stable" to "negative", citing dwindling foreign exchange reserves, risks from extremists and high inflation. Friends of Pakistan's role regarding economic stability of Pakistan is also not appreciable. At a conference hosted by the World Bank and friends of Pakistan in Tokyo the assurance of aid was given by these countries.
Japan pledged to provide up to $1 billion to Pakistan to support its economic reforms and counter-terrorism efforts and also showed interest to help Pakistan with assistance and expertise, particularly in the fields of energy, infrastructure and science and technology. The European Union and Saudi Arabia promised $640 and $700 million, Iran promised $330 million and the United States through its regional envoy Richard Holbrooke announced United States' intent to provide support, totalling one billion dollars, over a two-year period.
He called it a down payment on President Obama's commitment to support a bill to pump 1.5 billion dollars a year into Pakistan for at least five years. He added that Pakistan has to continue Obama's policy to do more against the war on terror and in response, Imran Khan termed the US aid as 'stringed' and one which would not serve the real purpose of establishing peace in the region.
He further added that Obama's policy is not much different from the US strategy earlier, as the performance-oriented aid would result in more killing of its own people by the Pak army, resulting in further destabilisation of the country. In this scenario the government needs to know that the world reality has fundamentally changed.
To save Pakistan from further sufferings, we need to formulate new policies for the improvement of macroeconomic stability, with the caution that in any case they should not be used to reduce national sovereignty. Pakistan needs a sound economic programme and for this purpose, the ruling elites must set up a time frame to windup the section of the war against terrorism and should seriously concentrate on the economic development of the country and in this regard, we need a uniform tax policy.
Pakistani Government can earn extra four billion by taxing agriculture, capital gain at the stock market, real estates business and hunting defaulter companies who do not bother to file their tax returns etc. Moreover, the government can meet health and educational expenses by shifting the burden on the corporate sector. Like the government did with corporate employees, earning more than one million a year who will pay 5% of their total tax and 30% of their bonus for IDPs.
If the Government follows the same parameters for all taxpayers ie salaried, individuals and the corporate sector it can collect a maximum in term of health and education. We can take an estimate by the figures provided in the quarterly report of FBR, that 17,430 companies filed their tax returns, with payment amounting to Rs 6,585 million out of 50,952 companies.
That means there is much room for collection of revenue if FBR officials take serious steps and make co-ordination with governing bodies of different sectors. Moreover, it is time for the Government to put the economy on the right path to compete with the growing economies of the world.
To streamline the economy, the government has to create more opportunities for investors, instead of relying on aid of the US, approved through the Kerry-Lugar bill. The government must appreciate the efforts of the private sector for the development of the economy.
We can achieve a maximum by helping the private sector as Mian Mohammad Mansha, chairman Nishat Group, said in an interview with a private TV channel that he has brought $1 billion to Pakistan from abroad through the private sector and could bring $1.5 billion a year, equal to US aid in the Kerry-Lugar bill.
No doubt it's an effort and the government has to think seriously about it. He further highlighted the different problems which our businessmen are facing in different sectors, ie textile, power generation, steel etc. It is a golden opportunity for us that our business class intends to support the government to strengthen economic conditions of the country.
Now it's for the government to decide whether they rely on the US, disputed, aid, approved through the Kerry-Lugar bill or trust their own countrymen. We have numerous challenges and we have their solutions as well, but we are wasting our time in decision making.
(Author is a lawyer accreted with several books on corporate and taxation laws)
abdulrauff@hotmail.com)