The Singapore dollar and Thai baht tracked a firmer euro on Monday after a report fanned speculation that China may diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar. The dollar fell to a 14-month low against the euro after a Chinese central bank researcher wrote in an opinion piece that Beijing should increase euro and yen in its foreign reserves.
But analysts expect most Asian currencies to consolidate in the coming days after rising sharply since the start of September on the back of the dollar's plunge. Asian central banks have intervened in recent weeks by buying dollars to slow the rise in their currencies and help exporters. "We are in the correction phase right now," said Magnus Prim, chief Asia currency strategist at SEB in Singapore. "I would expect the intervention to continue, but it won't stop the appreciation trend from resuming again."
SINGAPORE DOLLAR: The Singapore dollar gained 0.3 percent to 1.3915 per US dollar, taking its cue from euro. "It's euro driven as usual, but USD's downside is limited by worries about the authority's presence," said a trader, referring to market intervention by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The Singapore dollar has gained almost 4 percent since early September, fanning market jitters of possible official intervention to temper its strength. Many traders believe the central bank will not buy US dollars unless the Singapore dollar re-test a 14-month high hit earlier this month.
"Maybe you will see them at 1.3880s. I don't think US dollar/Singapore dollar will test new lows within 2-3 days," said another trader. The currency shrugged off data that showed factor output fell 9.1 percent in September from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, as a recent boom in the biomedical industry faded.
BAHT: The baht rose 0.4 percent to 33.32 per dollar in line with euro. "The baht returns to its general upbeat tone after two weeks of volatility fuelled by rumours on the king's health. The absence of further rumours this week could induce more capital inflows and help Thai stocks and baht," said a dealer. Investor concern about the 81-year-old Thai king's health have eased with his first public appearance on Friday after more than a month in hospital.