Can Pakistan get out of the rut?

02 Nov, 2009

Swamped in a financial quagmire of its own making. Pakistan finds itself hemmed in by antagonistic forces all around, within and outside its borders. Even the so-called friends of democratic Pakistan seem to be hedging their bets - can the sinking ship float again?
There is no dearth of pessimists and doomsday seers, but I believe that, given an enlightened and sincere leadership and dedicated people's representatives with a vision and missionary zeal, the wheels of the state's carriage can be extracted from the rut, and overcoming the ridges hemming it in, start rolling forward smoothly.
The first requirement is self-reliance, and to smash the begging bowl. No one is coming to rescue us if we cannot help ourselves. The so-called donors and aid-givers are Shylocks in disguise who want their pound of flesh. So forget about their largesses!
We require sincere and honest men of vision at the helm of affairs, and not the likes of our distant past and recent set-ups. As a role model, take the example of three countries in past-World War II era - (1) Germany (2) Japan and (3) China. After total devastation during the WW II, and/or internal strife, they rose like phoenix from the ashes in a short time (Germany and Japan in a few years with US help, and China, longer, without any foreign help, relying solely on their own resources).
(i) Germany, before the war was an industrially advanced nation with qualified manpower. The Marshall plan restored them back on their feet soon after losing the war.
(ii) Japan was the only country in the world to experience two nuclear hits. The trauma still persists, but with sheer will-power, they resuscitated their shattered economy and became world leaders in business and industry, with dedication, innovation and dogged persistence.
(iii) China was totally isolated after the ouster of Marshall Chiang Kai-Shek, and ostracised by the world powers. Even the Soviets withdrew their helping hand from their communist friends, as Mao Tse Tung and Stalin could not see eye to eye. And US, India and a few others were the sworn enemies of the People's Republic of China. So the Beijing regime opted to completely seal themselves in against foreign intrusion and devoted their time and skills to building up the nation from scratch. It may be pertinent to mention that China had been at war with external and internal foes intermittently since 1912 till 1949, and inflation (before the Great October Revolution) during the last days of Chiang Kai Shek regime had reached astronomical figures! I recall a news report, at the time that to buy a single egg the customer had to carry a sack full of currency notes (hiring a porter to lift the bag) to pay the price of the egg. This may have been an exaggeration by the reporter at the time, but it just shows the degree of inflation then rampant in Kuomintong China. The only parallet we can think of in present day, would be Zimbabwe, which recently issued notes of several billion denomination in their currency.
Coming back to China, their complete seclusion from the outside world (the only exception, besides their communist neighbours like North Korea and Vietnam, was Pakistan), lasted almost a quarter century, after which they opened their doors to others, and gradually built up an economy that has dwarfed other giants in the field. Their present forex reserves run into trillions of US Dollars equivalent (2,273,000,000,000), which is a potent factor for stability or otherwise of the US economy at Chinese whims.
This fact has also some grave implications for Pakistan as well as rest of the world, because lately Chinese have come out strongly in favour of phasing out the US Dollar as a currency of intervention (or a forex reserve currency) in international transactions.
This has shaken the Federal Reserve to its core. The latter's creditors (holders of US currency balances or bonds) can demolish the US currency and its supremacy around the globe at a stroke of the pen, by demanding gold in payment of their dollar holdings. Countries such as China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Thailand and other Asian Tigers (like Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.), as well as the oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, U.A.E., or Russia have the latent power to start a 'tsunami' of a US Dollar debacle, if they so desire.
I have particularly referred to China, as for the past 60 years China has never wavered in its friendship with Pakistan, even in its darkest hour. Chinese contribution to our development, in almost every field, has been tremendous, despite the fact that Pakistan has done little to reciprocate their help! On the contrary, a number of incidents by misguided people in Pakistan has taken the lives of Chinese nationals or subjected them to reprehensible acts of violence, abduction or worse, which any other nation would never have forgiven, but it goes to the Chinese leadership's credit and statesmanship that they have taken all this in their stride and continued steadfastly in their friendly help to Pakistan! Cynics may question their altruistic motives, but in the geo-strategic context, as well as the fact that Pakistan is sorely dependent on US handouts or other verbal promises of help by so called FoDP (Friends of Democratic Pakistan), it is a refreshingly helpful sign that China offers (often unsolicited) aid, investments and political support without strings!
It is upto Pakistan leadership to cultivate this friendship and develop the infra-structure in the country to revive the glories of the historic' Silk Road. Once that plan is fully implemented and other Central and West Asian states join in the loop, Pakistan's immense potential as a transit route and centre of entrepot of trade (like Dubai and Singapore) will be in full bloom. Talking about Singapore, a tiny state that could hardly fill a tiny portion of Karachi, it has forex reserves, in hundreds of billions (182,038,000,000) - and Singapore doesn't have any natural resources worth the name. It is just their ingenuity in developing the service industry and entrepot trade that brings them the lucre. They cash in on their strategic importance, straddling on a vital seaway, connecting Europe and Asia to the Far East!



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FOREX RESERVES AT END SEPT, 2009 (OR AS STATED)
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MILLIONS OF USD
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PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA 2,273,000
JAPAN 1,052,000
RUSSIA 412,590 (JULY 2009)
SAUDI ARABIA 395,467 (MAY 2009)
INDIA 281,861 (OCT 2009)
SOUTH KOREA 254,250
BRAZIL 232,201 (OCT 2009)
HONG KONG 226,900 (AUG 2009)
GERMANY 184,167 (JULY 2009)
SINGAPORE 182,038
THAILAND 132,300
IRAN 96,560
MALAYSIA 93,500
UK 83,935 (AUG 2009)
USA 83,375 (JULY 2009)
LIBYA 79,000 (SEP 2007)
INDONESIA 57,400 (JULY 2009)
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ENTIRE WORLD 8,711,038
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(SOURCE: WIKIPEDIA)
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