Rain in Brazil's south-eastern coffee belt will turn much heavier in the next five days, bringing added moisture to the soil as next year's crop continues the early stages of its development. Minas Gerais, where about half the coffee in the world's top grower is produced, will see rains get gradually heavier over the weekend with 64 millimeters (2.5 inches) expected to fall in some parts of the state by next Monday.
Rains will be heavy in most of the other coffee producing states with the exception of Espirito Santo which, unlike the rest of Brazil, produces mainly robusta coffee rather than arabica. It would likely stay dry until Monday at least. "As of Friday, the rain intensifies in Parana and Sao Paulo, due to a new cold front that reaches the south-east," Somar said in a daily coffee weather bulletin. Rainfall in the right quantity and at the right time is one of the most important factors in determining the quantity and quality of the annual harvest in the world's top coffee producer. Rains have been regular and consistent in recent weeks during the critical flowering period in which sufficient moisture is important to give trees vigor.
But out-of-season rainfall in the middle of the year when the 2009 harvest was being gathered, caused widespread damage to the quality of the crop, as large quantities of beans drying in the open air got soaked and began to ferment. The 2010/11 crop, which should be ready to harvest by May, has been estimated at anywhere from 45 million to 55 million bags by co-operatives and exporters. The government forecast published last week was much more conservative.
The Agriculture Ministry's crop supply agency Conab estimates the 2010/11 crop will turn out just over 44 million 60-kg bags, a fall from the 46 million bags produced in the 2008/09 season which fell in a higher output year as will next year's. Brazil's coffee production rises and falls from one year to the next in a biennial cycle.