Since Benazir's death, the PPP has turned into a leaderless party. Asif Zardari, who was chosen as the new the helmsman, has turned out to be a colossal disappointment as was widely expected. Soon after the 2008 elections, the PPP was in an ideal position to rule unchallenged for five years if it played its cards properly.
A closer understanding with the PML-N, which had agreed to join the federal cabinet as a coalition partner, would have ensured a strong and efficient administration. It would have been possible to have a small cabinet and introduce good governance. The political administration could have gradually regained the turf that should belong to it but has over the past decades been infringed upon and occupied by the military.
Thanks to the bad judgement on the part of Zardari this failed to happen with the result that in less that two years of its tenure the PPP-led government finds itself isolated from the masses and under pressure from the offstage players, the judiciary and media. Within months Zardari created conditions that led the PML-N to bid farewell to the coalition, leaving the PPP at the mercy of smaller parties, some of which continue to extract a high price for co-operation at every crucial moment.
After every few weeks, there are rumours of the fall of the government being imminent. The appointment of controversial, but close confidantes like Rehman Malik, Farooq Naek, Lateef Khosa, Babar Awan and others has further strengthened Zardari's image as a man who places personal loyalty above services to the party he now heads.
His opposition to the restoration of judiciary, despite solemn undertakings for the reinstatement of the judges by him, helped project him as an untrustworthy person. Allowing his friends who were in exile with him or were wanted in various cases to once again run amok also showing that friendship or business partners have a higher standing in his eyes than the legacy he is entrusted with as a guardian of his children with Benazir Bhutto.
Within a few months Zardari squandered whatever goodwill still existed for him. By March 2009, when the International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted its opinion poll, Zardari's ratings had fallen like a stone. The results showed Nawaz at 75 percent, CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry at 54 percent, Prime Minister Gilani 33 percent, COAS Kayani 30 percent and Zardari at a dismal 19 percent.
As things stand, there is none in the second tier of leadership to replace Zardari. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari who is a 21-year-old undergraduate with English as his first language will take at least five to six years to return to politics. However, one cannot simply claim leadership as part of inheritance and get it, as is amply indicated by the example of Murtaza Bhutto.
One has to have politics in one's blood plus political shrewdness and personal courage, besides a good knowledge of the country's conditions and an ability to interact to be able to lead. It is still to be seen if Bilawal has the needed qualities. There is no shortage of political bigwigs in the PPP at the local level. There are quite a few who as big landlords have inherited constituencies in Sindh and Punjab.
Some can even win their seats as independent candidates or nominees of other parties. But they have little influence outside their constituencies or projection as national leaders. There is also a smattering of middle class leaders. However, they mostly win because they have been allotted the PPP symbol. Deprived of a party ticket, they would find it hard to make it to the assemblies.
The leadership crisis has been created because Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir, like PML-N leaders Nawaz Sharif, did not encourage the growth of alternate leadership in the party. The idea was to keep the leadership within the family. What is more, both were charismatic leaders. As a banyan tree does not let anything grow under it, charismatic leaders too are jealous of rivals. While they can draw crowds and win elections through the force of their personality, the party remains weak.
Party workers, lower down, too do not try to activate the party apparatus because of their dependence on the top leader. Even when elections are held in the party, they remain a formality, with everyone following the instructions from above. Anyone challenging the hegemony of the party boss or differing with him is considered disloyal and hounded out of the party. In case of the party being in power, he might even be thrown into jail on made up charges.
This has weakened the PPP and increased the workers dependence on the leadership with the result that when the leader goes missing the party loses all initiatives and ability to mobilise the public. This explains why neither the PPP nor the PML-N was able to effectively challenge Musharraf while their top leaders were in exile.
The PPP may be a loser in the short term but keeping in view its political base, the absence of charismatic leadership could, in the long run, turn out to be a boon for the party. This is the best time for the PPP to develop its decision-making bodies, promote inner party democracy, and project a number of leaders capable enough to replace the top leader when needed. But will Zardari who is jealous of losing the grip on the party apparatus allow this to happen?