Former nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei's bombshell that he is considering running for Egypt's presidency in 2011 will not translate into a competitive election, even if he succeeds in entering the race. But the move could signal that the 67-year-old former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency wants to use his international stature to press for democratic reforms in his home country, ruled by Hosni Mubarak for over a quarter century.
Egypt experimented with its first multi-candidate presidential election in 2005 that it touted as a process of democratisation, but which critics panned as a sham. Few have hopes that 2011 will be any different. "If anything, 2005 was the high point in our political experience and we have been going downhill since then," said Ghada Shahbender, who co-founded election watchdog Shayfeencom (we see you).
"He (ElBaradei) requires constitutional reform. I don't see it happening in the next year. He requires carefully monitored non-fraudulent elections. It is not something that has happened in my lifetime," she said.
ElBaradei, who has laid out tough conditions for running, enters Egypt's political fray as speculation mounts over who will succeed 81-year-old Mubarak, who is widely expected to seek another term in 2011, health permitting. Some voices in Egypt's opposition have urged ElBaradei to challenge him, hoping to block Mubarak from passing on power to his politician son Gamal, widely tipped as the most likely candidate to lead US ally Egypt after his father.
"What makes me also less optimistic about it is the fact that he is already been put into the grinding machine of the National Democratic Party. The character assassination is starting to roll," said Walid Kazziha, political science professor at the American University in Cairo. Other possible successors to Mubarak include his intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, or another military candidate.
A less likely candidate is Arab League chief Amr Moussa, an outspoken former foreign minister popular in Egypt for criticism of Israel. In surprise remarks, Moussa did not rule out a presidential run when asked. ElBaradei, tipped as a possible consensus candidate, has said he would consider mounting a presidential campaign but first demanded improbable reforms such as a new constitution with checks on power, and guarantees of a fair vote.
Egypt's state media have pounced, with one editor accusing ElBaradei of holding a foreign nationality and harbouring ill will for his homeland. Another pro-government journalist said ElBaradei "knows nothing of Egypt's problems". Among ElBaradei's conditions for running are judicial supervision of the election carried out under the watchful eye of UN monitors. He also wants state media to give equal space to the platforms of all candidates.
Such demands will likely fall on deaf ears in a country that has backtracked on democratisation in recent years. Mubarak's main 2005 challenger, Ayman Nour, was later jailed on fraud charges he says were fabricated to force him from politics. Nour's conviction bars him from mounting another run.
Cairo has also obstructed the opposition Muslim Brotherhood, which in 2005 won a fifth of the seats in the lower house of parliament, from further electoral gains by blocking them from filing nomination papers and by detaining members. "I am sure he knows these conditions are not going to be met, and therefore he would not be a candidate. But by taking this position ... he is exerting some sort of pressure on the Egyptian political system," said Mustapha al-Sayyed, political science professor at Cairo University.
Even if ElBaradei drops demands for pre-election reforms, getting on the ballot is no easy task. An independent candidate would need the backing of 250 elected representatives spread across both houses of parliament and local councils - all of which are dominated by the ruling party. The easiest path would be to sign on as a candidate for an existing political party. Egyptian media have speculated that opposition parties might court ElBaradei.