Soaring cocoa prices, at 30-year peaks, could drive confectioners towards milk chocolate from healthier dark chocolate, and to downsize bars and use cheaper alternative ingredients. European cocoa traders and consultants said the almost doubling of cocoa prices in the past two years will inevitably force a re-think of sales and marketing strategies of confectioners and increase the appeal of industry consolidation.
Tight supplies and low investment by West African producers drove cocoa futures prices on the ICE market in New York to a 30-year high of $3,510 per tonne on December 16. Chris Brockman, market research manager at consultants Leatherhead Food Research, said that during an economic downturn, confectioners would do their best not to hike chocolate prices in response to the cocoa market rally. "We'll see a move to less cocoa content," he said. A recent shift in tastes towards dark chocolate, which has high cocoa content and is perceived to have health benefits, was likely to swing back towards milk chocolate.