The crippling debt and shaky financial credibility undermining Greece and some of its partners on financial markets threaten the cohesion of the eurozone and the euro as well, analysts warn.
Anxious investors surveying the dark clouds looming over Greek and Portuguese finances, as well as lacklustre growth prospects for the eurozone as a whole, have begun to shun the single currency for the safe-haven dollar.
Adding to the downward pressure have been fears that China will take steps to cool its sizzling economy, curbing demand for currencies - such as the euro - seen as a riskier bet than the US unit. "Due to the uncertain economic outlook in Europe, markets are in no mood to buy the euro," said Hachijuni Bank strategist Masatsugu Miyata.
"Although the United States has its own problems, at least it is in control of its fiscal policies relative to Europe," he added. The euro by the end of last week was being traded at 1.41 dollars, with analysts at Capital Economics seeing the single currency plunging to 1.30 dollars by the end of the year. The euro in early December had been trading close to 1.51 dollars.
Until recently the financial turmoil roiling Greece and the failure of its deficit reduction plans to impress markets have been seen principally raising questions about cohesion of policies in the eurozone, where ever greater convergence is supposed to be the common target. The fear is that if Greece is ultimately abandoned by its partners, the country - despite its protestations to the contrary - might decide to leave the eurozone, encouraging other weaker members to consider the same step. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have identified Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland as "peripheral" eurozone members, saddled with huge debts and where economic vitality is destined to lag behind "core" members such as France and Germany.
Joining the eurozone has meant that they no longer control their own interest and exchange rates, having turned that responsibility over to the European Central Bank. But they are quick to add that such a step is unlikely, as "the transition costs of such a breakway would be huge and that the medium-term relief brought about by their 'independent strategy' would be negligible."
A starker warning comes from Hans George Fabritius, a member of the board of the German central bank, who said that if Greece did not act promptly to "get its budget problems under control, the discussion of a European bailout will grow in vehemence and take on its own dynamic," according to the text of a recent speech quoted by Bank of New York Mellon Currency Research.
Portugal too is cause for concern. The International Monetary Fund last week told Portugal, which like Greece is grappling with a substantial debt and public deficit, it was "critical" that it restore order to its public finances.
Added a note from Commerzbank: "Unless radical reforms are made, the country is threatening to fall further and further behind economically, and so Portugal's public finances could get under even stronger pressure."
Investor unease about the fate of the eurozone is now making itself felt on the currency market, where according to Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics "the euro is set to weaken over the coming year."