What a time to have a major judiciary-political crisis on the one's hand! A big chunk of the army is tied up with subduing hard-liners in South Waziristan, an operation that defies a logical conclusion; we are being pressed incessantly by our "ally" to enter North Waziristan to (in effect) confirm our role as mercenaries;
The President is embroiled in a corruption blame controversy and appears at loggerheads with the Judiciary on the one hand and with the army on the other; His very eligibility for contesting the elections (which he had won) is being challenged; There is no respite from suicide attacks; Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, threatens us with the possibility of "India losing patience" with us in case another Mumbai-like attack materialises, thereby implying Pakistan was responsible in some way; Same Robert Gates confirms the presence of infamous Black Water (may be under a different name) in Pakistan whereas our honourable Minister of Interior had said he would resign as minister if Blackwater presence in Pakistan were proved; Drone attacks have intensified apparently in angry retaliation for the "impossible" and highly damaging attack on CIA heart of hearts in Afghanistan, incidentally, not by Pakistanis but by an Arab (with a Turkish wife who is proud of her husband's accomplishment and wants the like continued) while the US-PAK policy (we-keep-bombing-you-keep-protesting) continues; What a time, we repeat for Pakistan be embroiled in a major judiciary-political crisis!
THE "NEW" ASIF ZARDARI The "new" Asif Zardari has been now been around a full month! Gone is the sweet talk of the past two years! Gone long are warm embraces with political foes (once lifting Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan off his feet in the process)! Gone is the permanent toothy smile! The metamorphosis is complete! But how long will it last? Good question! But there is another that must be answered first? Why the sudden change? Well there is more than one theory going round to answer and explain that.
It is surmised that President Asif Zardari has sensed that the inexorable drive of the judiciary under Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry to see justice done and wrongdoers, however high and mighty, brought to justice, is going to touch him in no small measure. His previous soft talk about respecting the judiciary and obeying its orders, as he saw it, cut no ice with the judiciary.
Not only is the Supreme Court judgement unequivocal in its decision that the $60 million stashed away in the Swiss banks and elsewhere abroad be brought back but also that the case be speedily reopened by the government and law allowed to take its course. There are also questions raised about the immunity from prosecution enjoyed by the President in Pakistan.
Is the immunity absolute in terms of the nature of the offence alleged to have been committed? Is the immunity broad enough to cover alleged wrongdoing during the time the wrongdoer was not President as well? Having sensed mortal danger to his future - personal and political - so the theory goes, President Zardari has come out with bare knuckles to fight back tooth and nail.
Why not dispense with polite talk and come out with bravado and bluster? What more can he lose? He has assumed the posture of a potential martyr and takes pains to say that he is acting in the tradition of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto, both of whom met unnatural deaths.
Since a showdown in his view appears to be inevitable, President Zardari has chosen to come out fighting, both barrels firing. There are several theories as to what he hopes to gain from such a posture as we said earlier. One is to put pressure on the judiciary and make it appear that it is victimising the democratically elected President "to settle scores".
(He is probably thinking back on the way the PPP government dragged its feet in restoring the judiciary illegally deposed by Musharraf, among other things). If he were to go down, he would go down fighting hoping to mobilise popular support behind him and to try to make a comeback politically on the strength of the posture that he was a victim of conspiracies.
The "Sindh card" may come into play. But how exactly can President Zardari "go down"? Would his party disown him? Not likely! Impeachment? Highly unlikely again! Would he "take the system down" with him using the considerable powers he continues to hold? Or would he go down as a result of legal procedures against his eligibility or continuing in any public office as President.
THE WEEK IN LAHORE His week-long foray in Lahore and Faisalabad earlier this month appears to be the high point of his new posturing. The bunker image had become the talk of the town and something had to be done about that. It is another matter that he appeared to carry his "bunker" around with him! The highway to Faisalabad was blocked for an hour to ensure safe passage to his - perhaps 20-strong - security entourage coming out of Lahore.
That got a lot of media attention, especially when Rana Sanaullah, Punjab Minister for Law-plus, travelling by car on the Lahore-Faisalabad Highway, was stopped in his tracks! PPP people in not-too-large numbers, probably screened before entering the venue, were addressed by him (surprise, surprise in chaste Punjabi) at various places, often from behind bullet-proof glass.
To be fair, perhaps no blame should attach to the extra precautions taken in view of the state of security in the country under Rehman Malik. Asif Zardari addressed the gatherings in an emotional style a la Bhutto, but failed to evoke anywhere near the kind of response Bhutto got in his time in his public speeches in Punjab.
Mixed with various promises to bring welfare to the people was a lot of dim talk, which betrayed his lack of political experience and personal caliber. His promise to solve people's problems like poverty, unemployment and power and water shortage, in three years' time, and to fulfil his promise of Roti, Kapra aur Makan, could hardly stir up his audience which no doubt, sees these claims in the light of his government's record of achievements and of keeping promises in the two years past.
The President spoke of how he travelled to other countries to successfully raise funds for construction of dams across the country and promised to as many as 32 dams. It is perhaps just as well that he made no promise about eliminating corruption in view of the Transparency International end November 2009 report that Pakistan's 2009 Corruption Perception Index (CPI) score is 2.4, ranking it at 42nd most corrupt country in the world. Corruption, especially in high places, is said to have increased manifold in the two years the PPP has been in power.
MARSHALL PLAN FOR PAKISTAN!? Addressing a reception held by "Leading Citizens of Lahore", Zardari said: "Time and again I have been asking the world for a Marshall Plan for Pakistan (the name refers to American largesse provided to a devastated post-World War II Europe to put it back on its feet) like the one they had for Europe. Yes, they have not agreed as yet, but I can and will make them agree".
What kind of pomposity is this? Also, is there no other way Pakistan can come up without massive doses of American money a la Marshall Plan? Do we say goodbye to the little independence that still remains with us?
Look at this! Zardari said in Lahore "on being told by an American General that militants had reached Margalla Hills, I told him that the number of army officers embracing martyrdom would be higher the Jawans if a war is imposed". What does this confused statement mean? What kind of message is intended? Is such a threat real in the President's view?
According to another report, he claimed he was watching with an eagle eye every move of "thieves and conspirators". Again, addressing a public gathering during the visit the President said: "We cannot be killed by pen or bayonets". As usual he failed to identify as to who were the thieves, who the conspirators, who were the wielders of the murderous pens and bayonets to harm him or his party.
It will be recalled that Barrister Kamal Azfar, briefly representing the government in the Supreme Court on the NRO case, had blurted out that the GHQ and the CIA were a threat to the democratic order in the country, though later it was claimed that these were his personal views. This is devoid of any kind of sense.
Later, talking to a lawyers' delegation, the President said:"If my life goes for the sake of interest of the party it will be great honour for me" and for good measure, he added: "It is my will that after my death I must be buried in Garhi Khuda Baksh" (where the two famous Bhuttos - Zulfikar and Benazir are buried)! This is hardly inspiring talk, if that was the intention, and very poor politics to boot! "I am one of them (Bhuttos)", Zardari appears to be reminding the jiyalas.
This is in line with the incessant sponging on the Bhutto name for what it is worth, quite unmindful of the Law of Diminishing Returns. With the air of an oracle, President Zardari prophesied that the 21st century is "Asia's century". He implied that being part of Asia, Pakistan too would be taking great strides in becoming a great nation by making all round progress or words to that effect.
The President appears to have ignored the fact that if Asia were to really forge ahead of the West in this century, it would be due to good governance by governments and leaders in countries like Japan, China and South Korea with no contribution from Pakistan. How does President Zardari think that Pakistan could get a ride on the Asia bandwagon without improving the governance in Pakistan and reducing the colossal corruption that is eating away its vitals?
He appears to have forgotten in the heat of the moment that it was mainly to the countries of the West that he has travelled with the proverbial begging bowl in hand. How irrelevant can one get! All in all, it was a poor show and the net result was no more than the news that Asif Zardari can speak fluently in Punjabi as well.
IS CONFRONTATION UNAVOIDABLE? The Prime Minister talks of excellent executive-judiciary relations and no possibility of a clash, while his government and the government in Punjab has not moved an inch towards implementing any of the injunctions contained in the Supreme Courts short order in the NRO case, nor on the matter of appointments of judges to High Courts (notably in Lahore) and the Supreme Court.
A review petition was moved even before the detailed judgement was out and procrastination a la Zardari is all too visible. Legal and constitutional experts are of the view that a review petition does not entail a delay in implementing the orders given in the short order and no stay of execution automatically follows.
Now that the detailed judgement is also out, the role of the executive is in sharp focus. Interestingly, while President Zardari calls the shots in all important matters, it is the Prime Minister who is the head of the Executive and it is upto him, therefore, that all orders by the judiciary to the executive are actually directed. So it is he, in the first place, and not the President who is in the firing line should a contempt case come up for non-compliance of Supreme Court orders.
The detailed Supreme Court judgement came out on Tuesday (19 January 2010) and was published in the print media on Wednesday, a little over a month days after the short order was given by the 17-member Supreme Court Bench on 16 December 2009. The CJP has vowed to ensure justice is done, whatever the cost. The executive was already urged to move expeditiously to implement the Supreme Courts decisions. We must some more for the answer to the question raised.
POINTS OF CONTENTION The Swiss case reopening is being resisted by the government and is a major potential disaster for the PPP government in general and for its Co-Chairman in particular. The judiciary's main focus is to bring back into the country its $60 million stashed away in the Swiss banks and maybe elsewhere. How can any one ask courts in other countries, asks Fauzia Wahab, to try the head of government of one's own country?
Similarly, the Supreme Court has asked the government to proceed against Malik Abdul Qayyum for having unauthorisedly withdrawn the money laundering case from the Swiss courts, which were hearing it. If the government moves on this, as it must, many other people in high places could be exposed in unseemly glare. Appointment of judges to higher judiciary has also become a matter of contention between the executive and the judiciary.
Appointment of former Justice Khalilur Rehman Ramday was recommended by CJP Chaudhry as ad hoc judge of the Supreme Court. Also moved was the recommendation to appoint Lahore High Court judge Saqib Nisar as Supreme Court Judge to fill the vacancy created by the retirement of Justice Ramday.
Both recommendations were pending with the PPP government since the last week of December 2009. The government has now at last moved but only to decline the CJP's recommendation and to propose the appointment instead of CJ LHC Khawaja Sharif as Supreme Court Judge. Appointment of 24 judges to Lahore High Court (which has only 24 Judges in place of its normal strength of 60) recommended by CJ LHC Khawaja Muhammad Sharif has been allegedly blocked by Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer. Where do we go from here?
(owajid@yahoo.com)