Water is politics, water's religion. Water is far from being pure economical. Scarcity of the most needed natural resource in the face of rapidly growing population warrants more attention. In the aftermath of global warming, changes in water dynamics are imminent. Global environmental experts agree that climate change will alter weather patterns and shrink the glaciers.
And so, the quantity of water in the Indus river system is expected to become more erratic - potentially leading to a higher frequency of severe floods and droughts. Rising population on both sides of the Indo-Pak border, which largely depends on agrarian economies, will keep increasing demand pressures on water, thereby sparking disputes over regional water resources.
Even the crux of Kashmir issue essentially lies in deep water as all the six rivers of Indus basin flow from Kashmir. But unfortunately, being preoccupied in the war against terror, Pakistan, on the face of it, has been out of focus from its core long-term issue of safeguarding water resources from our eastern neighbour India.
Lately, apparent violation of Indus Water Treaty - stealing of water from the three rivers - on the part of India compelled Pakistan to fight for its rights. But with the international pundits and dispute settlement agencies seemingly favouring the bigger economy - India - Pakistan is likely to be left with little options than to fight for its right by hook or crook.
Such water related issues, including Sallal Dam and Wullar barrage, have kept propping up over the period of years; every time at the instigation of the Indian side. If they weren't enough, the construction of Baglihar Dam and other hydroelectric projects by India are also a cause of concern, which can potentially divert Pakistan's water to India.
In times of low rainfall, as the current season, dams like this result in under-supply of water to Pakistan, thereby triggering a reason for a heated conflict. Yet, reportedly India is building as many as sixty projects along the rivers that violates Indus Water Treaty. Moreover, few of these projects, envisaged or currently under execution stage, can be an ecological disaster for the area. Industry voices suggest that these dams are likely to be built by cutting thousands of acres of forests in Occupied Kashmir, which could affect the rainfall in Pakistan.
Adding to the agony, it instigates the ethnic tussle between our provinces. Instead of being united on one platform for the sake of Pakistan's water rights, provinces have tended to focus more on their personal interests than on the larger interest of the country. This is evident from the fact that none of the democratic or authoritarian regimes have been able to break these lobbies to build even one large dam, much needed in the past many years.
Surprisingly, the water row between provinces exacerbated in authoritarian times of Zia and Musharraf, whereas the violation of water accords was observed during the democratically elected government of Pakistan Peoples Party. Hence, the proponents of the thesis that Punjab abuses its dominance at the time of water shortage do not have strong footings.
The 1991 Water Accord signed under the PML government establishes clear entitlements for each province to surface water. With this system, Pakistan can now focus on applying similar methodology for surface systems that do not have established entitlements - for new mobilised water, for environmental flows, for groundwater while administering the system in a more transparent and participatory manner.
But that's an inter-provincial matter. How they deal with it among them isn't in question here, instead how they plan to deal with the overall water shortage, together, is the main question. The key is to keep aside their vested interests and wholeheartedly work on the solution of water shortage in the backdrop of global warming and the Indian violation.
There is clearly no denying that water is the next gold - the blue gold. By now we all know how water and food scarcity has become a global issue, which is why China, India and oil-rich countries are eyeing to acquire farming lands in African and Asian countries.
While these may be simple economic transactions on the face it, these are termed, nonetheless, termed as land grabbing by many. Lately, after the surfacing of evidence of corruption in land acquisition of African countries, global agencies are now demanding new rules to ensure the consent of local community before the selling of lands to foreigners.
Similar issues have propped up in Pakistan, especially after Saudi Arabia reportedly started negotiating with Pakistani authorities to lease agricultural land of approximately 500,000 acres in order to hedge food security in the future. Given water shortage, it is probable that if lands are leased to foreigners, they will be provided with water on a priority basis, as part of the conditions, deserting local farmers and the poor population.
These are indeed alarming developments and can potentially add woes to water problems for natives. Add to it the twist of Indian factor as discussed earlier, and there are more reasons why one should not take India's recent statement that "there is no possibility of war between Indian and Pakistan on water" on the face value. When the world goes to war on some time in the not-so distant future, Pakistan should better be prepared for it.