Severe drought could cause the 2010/11 sugar cane crop in Thailand to be 10 percent lower than previously forecast at 71-72 million tonnes and lead to a drop in sugar production in 2011, a senior industry official said on Monday. Cane for the 2010-11 crop is being planted progressively as the current crop is harvested from November 2009 to April 2010.
The 2010/11 crop could therefore suffer if the weather this summer is drier than normal, as forecast. "We expect to have around 71-72 million tonnes of cane in the 2010/11 crop at best," Prasert Tapaneeyangkul, secretary general of the Office of Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB), which oversees the country's sugar industry, told Reuters.
That is around 10 percent lower than the previous forecast of a record 80 million tonnes from the OCSB made in September, when it said farmers would shift from other commodities to grow cane to capitalise on a jump in world sugar prices. Cane output in the current 2009-10 crop is forecast by the OCSB to be 69-70 million tonnes.
The benchmark New York raw sugar contract hit a 29-year high at 30.40 cents in early February on worries about tight global supply after India, which is the world's second-largest sugar producer, became a net importer because of tumbling domestic output.
The forecast of 71-72 million tonnes of cane for the 2010-11 crop would be equivalent to around 7.1-7.2 million tonnes of sugar, little different from the forecast for the 2009-10 crop. Thailand, the world's second-biggest sugar exporter, is expected to produce around 7.0 million tonnes of sugar in 2009-10, according to the OCSB.
"We are concerned that the severe drought could cut production significantly as farmers were warned of extremely hot and dry weather this year," Prasert said. The Meteorological Department has warned of extremely high temperatures of up to 42 Celsius (108 Fahrenheit) during the summer period and less rain than usual when the rainy season starts in May.