The disastrous landslide occurred in January 4, 2010 in Atabad village, some 109 Kilometres north-east of Gilgit city and about 19 Km east of Hunza City.
It killed 20 people and injured over hundreds, besides displacing the whole population of the village, now threatening the population and infrastructure, including the Terbela Dam from the Atabad village, in Gilgit, to Terbela, as the over 17-kilometre long and about 400 feet deep lake, created by the landslide caused from blocking the flow of the Hunza River, is feared to burst at any time. The fallen materials have completely blocked the flow of the river and also covered about 3.5-kilometer of the Karakorum Highway (KKH), resulting in complete closure of the important road connecting Pakistan with China.
The massive lake created by the landslide is now threatening both the up and downstream population and infrastructure, as the water level of the dam is increasing by three feet daily, which might increase with the surge in the mercury and rains that have started the process of melting glaciers and snow on the hills and mountains, which are feeding the Hunza River, a major tributary of the River Indus.
Though seepage through the landslide dam started in the first week of March 2010, but the seepage is very little in quantity, as compared to the inflow of water from upstream, which increases day by day with the melting of snow and glaciers in the upper areas. With each passing day, the pressure on the dams is on the increase, increasing the prospect of a sudden breach of the dam that would play havoc with the population and the infrastructure downstream.
Though the government has belatedly swung into action and various high-level meetings have been held, both at Islamabad and the region's capital, Gilgit, to evolve a strategy for the safe and secure release of the water accumulated in the lake. But the locals are not satisfied with government efforts and accuse it of a pathetic attitude towards the looming dangers.
"The regional government is busy in cabinet formation and have no time for the imminent threat to thousands of people of the region living downstream, alongside the Hunza River," Baba Jan, President Save Gilgit-Baltistan Movement (SGBM), a conglomerate of about a dozen local nationalists and progressive parties and students associations, formed to campaign for quick and immediate measures for avoiding the feared disasters, told Business Recorder.
He was very critical of the regional, as well as the federal government, for their response to the danger. "The ineptness and incompetence of the regional government, headed by chief minister Mehdi Shah, is evident from the fact that he has failed to form his cabinet, even three months after the formation of the government."
Shah is first chief minister of the region, who gets maximum autonomy under the broader reforms introduced by the PPP-led central government last year. "We know it's a natural disaster, but we are not satisfied with the government's belated efforts," said Mirza Hussain, member legislative Assembly Gilgit-Baltistan.
Residents say the government has not done enough to get supplies and contain the threat of the breach. Officials are scrambling to ease the pressure on the dam by creating a spillway, and say that they do not see any immediate threat of a breach. But residents say the situation is extremely precarious.
"The water level is rising every day, adding to the pressure which could lead to a breach in the lake," Hussain said. Raees, a resident of Ainaabad, a village located upstream of the dam and submerged by the lake water, accused the government of not doing enough to save the lives and properties of the people at risk and providing essential supplies to the affected as well as stranded people at risk and providing essential supplies to the affected as well as stranded people.
"I have lost my house and land due to this lake, but we are not getting sufficient relief. It is really pathetic," the 32-year-old Raees Khan said. The lake has also blocked a 1.3-km stretch of the Karakorum Highway (KKH), a road linking Pakistan and China through the Himalayas and a trade route for a significant portion of Pakistan's consumer goods.
Mirza Hussain, who is also a member of a regional commerce body, said because of the KKH blockage, nearly 300 trucks, loaded with Chinese goods, were stuck at a dry port upstream, with still more goods in 60 warehouses. Though belatedly, the government has activated the relevant agencies to carry out the desired tasks.
A meeting, with the participation of officials of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), NESPAK, SUPARCO, WAPDA, Ministries of Environment and Interior and the Gilgit-Baltistan government, have recently held a meeting, in Islamabad, with the federal minister for Environment Hameedullah Jan Afridi in the chair.
The minister has asked the agencies to prepare an emergency plan to cope with a possible flood, which may affect the population and infrastructure along the Hunza/Indus river valley from Atabad to Tarbela. On request of the federal government, the Army mobilised all possible resources to mitigate this natural calamity. Engineer-in-Chief (E-in-C) of Pakistan Army detailed a team of experts to evaluate the situation and propose a possible solution to the problem. The team visited the site on January 06, 2010 and evaluated site conditions.
The team of experts considered different options, including the use of explosives, pumping and construction of a spillway cut to clear the river blockage and to restore the KKH. The construction of a spillway cut, as deep as possible in the direction of river flow, on top of the sided mass was considered more feasible.
However, were on the site was started on January 25 by the Frontier Work Organisation (FWO). The FWO, in collaboration with the NDMA, is continuing work on the site to go as deep as possible to reduce down stream flooding hazards. But an official involved in the rehabilitation efforts told Business Recorder, over the phone, that there are dangers of flash floods, as the chance of a bridge exists until the pressure on the blockage is reduce.
In the worst case scenario, if the lake bursts, the water will damage or destroy all the bridges in the area and will damage the KKH," the official said. He said the wave, which could be as high as 50 metres at its start, would affect nearly 20,000 people in the districts of Gilgit-Baltistan and another 50,000 to 60,000 people downstream.
Dr David Fetley, an expert at the International Landslide Centre of Durham University who visited the site between February 26 to March 4, has proposed various recommendations regarding the lake, in its report complied after the visit. The expert says in his report that here is a substantive risk of an outburst of the landslide dam in Hunza.
He said the outburst event is most likely, during or shortly after water flows across the spillway. However, such an event could be triggered by a range of other processes, some of which may provide little warning; If such an event occurs, there is the potential for a large flood wave to travel downstream as far as Tarbela Dam. This wave would greatly endanger the downstream population and could cause damage to infrastructure.
"The safe level is considered to be 60 m above the current river level and populations located between the river level and the safe level should be evacuated prior to the arrival of the wave. This will required precautionary evacuations for those people living immediately downstream of the dam; and emergency evacuation plans for those further downstream. There is also substantive risk to people living close to terrace edges and on unstable slopes; these populations should also be protected through evacuation," the report recommends.
A flood wave would also cause substantive damage to infrastructure downstream and the impact of the flood will pose problems in terms of livelihoods and welfare. If the dam does not breach, there will be a long-term hazard at the site that will continue to threaten downstream communities. This will require a long-term monitoring effort and a disaster plan to move the affected population at short notice. Management of this hazard will require considerable investment.
Whilst constructing the spillway is undoubtedly an appropriate first step, a great deal more work is urgently required in terms of the management of the hazard, in particular outside of the area between Attaabad and Gilgit, it added. The downstream communities are facing a level of risk that is not tolerable and immediate action is required at the national level to protect the population between Atabad and Tarbela Dam, the expert further suggests.
"A substantive monitoring effort is required without delay; Four alert states are recommended, underpinned by a robust communications plan and an awareness and evacuation plan for the potentially-affected population as far as Tarbela Dam," the report concluded. Though the FWO is continuing work on the site, but the local people are not satisfied with the operation carried out by it.
Baba Jan says just four bulldozers are working on the site to create spillways, which are not enough in the wake of the nature of the threats the lake is posing and the urgency it requires. If the work continued with such a pace, the FWO could only be able to, in no less than six months complete the task, which would be too late. The SGBM chief demanded of the government to give the task of safe release of the water from the lake, to some reputed international organisations, with relevant expertise in such calamities.
The SGBM chief, who was flanked by other leaders of the movement including Iqbal Esa Khan, Raheemullah and Jaan Alam and others, who addressed a press conference at the local press club regarding the issue, demanded of the government to supply rations and others essential food and medical supplied to the people stranded in the villages of Shahshal, Chapparson and Susut, which have been cut off from other parts of the region by the landslide as the KKH, which connects the villages with other parts of the region, has been swept away.
They pointed out that the 17-kilometer landslide dam, has already submerged the up-stream Ainaabad village and half of the Shashkat village, besides the second biggest bridge of Shahrah-e-Karakorum, completely disconnecting access of Shashket village with the surrounding areas. They said the government is unmoved over the miseries of the residents of Ainaabad village, who have been displaced as their whole village has been submerged by the increasing water of the lake.
They said that it is feared that the increasing water of the lake would submerge, within days, some 30 kilometer up-stream villages of Galmat and Hussaini and some 25,000 population of Upper Hunza have been stranded and are running of food and medical supplies. They demanded of the government to store rations for one year at Hunza and Nagar for the affected population, besides rehabilitating the displaced people of the Atabad. Ainaabad and Shashkat villages at some other alternative locations.
Baba Jan said that the former governor Gilgit-Baltistan Qamar Zaman Kaira had announced after the landslide that the dam water would be released safely within 15 days and later announced the task would be done within 45 days. "But three months have passed after the incident and nothing has been done by the government." He charged. The episode of the Hunza landslide lake exposed the in capability of our disasters management and other relevant agencies and their preparedness and alertness. The NDMA, which was formed after a devastating October 2005 earthquake that killed over 100,000 people in the country's north-west has been completely exposed, as it could not handle the situation arising out of a mere landslide. This should have served as a wake-up call for the relevant quarters, and the NDMA and the provincial and district disaster management agencies should be activated and equipped.