According to a Business Recorder exclusive, experts have begun expressing serious concerns over the likelihood of a debilitating gas shortage within the next three to four years.
The extent of the crisis would be far greater than what the country experienced in the winter season just past, which had necessitated the announcement of a gas load management plan that included curtailed supply to households, lower supply to feedstock and fertiliser companies, with a consequent negative impact on output, as well as lower supply to the power sector that relies on gas as an input.
It is sincerely hoped that the present government does not make the very same mistake that it lays at the doorstep of the former government: failure to act in time, in spite of dire warnings by experts that there would be a massive energy shortfall, as well as water shortage, unless generation capacity is supplemented and water storage reservoirs are built in time. Thus, the time to act is now and one hopes that the federal government takes cognisance of this fact and begins to formulate a strategy to ensure that it is not held responsible for failure to act on time for a worsening gas shortage in years to come.
The government must understand that to tap energy resources requires medium to long-term planning. Thus, gas exploration must be an ongoing activity in this country, as must the reduction of gas distribution losses. The need for ensuring connectivity, as well as integration into the national grid, is also essential.
Pakistan, at present, has inadequate finances to be able to effectively carry out these measures on its own. Thus, there is an urgent need for foreign assistance/investment to develop this sub-sector. It is extremely unfortunate that at present, the areas where gas exploration is likely to meet with success are in the throes of an ongoing insurgency.
While a start has been made by the government in resolving the simmering political issues in Balochistan, through the passage of the Balochistan-specific package, yet there are the continuing concerns of the Baloch nationalists that have yet to be addressed.
These include not only the failure of the government to take exiled Baloch leaders on board, prior to formulating the package, but also the slow implementation of the package itself, especially with respect to two issues: (i) inquiry into the murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti by a fact-finding mission, to be headed by a retired judge of the Supreme or High Court, and (ii) identification of missing persons, with the release of those against whom there is no charge and the trial of others before a competent court.
In recent months, the Baloch leadership has been meeting with the leader of the main opposition party Nawaz Sharif and urging him to take out a long march that would guarantee that the wishes of the Baloch people are taken cognisance of.
It is hoped that the government, as well as the leader of the opposition, join hands in ensuring that the Baloch peoples' genuine political demands are met, for this way lies not only peace and harmony, but also the development of natural resources that can be used for the development of this country. It is, therefore, hoped that a policy is formulated that seeks to deal with the looming gas crisis as soon as possible.