Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan's Democratic Party looks increasingly likely to suffer a sharp setback in a weekend election, surveys showed on Friday, putting his job at risk and hampering efforts to curb a huge public debt. Flagging support for the Democrats, who swept to power last year promising change, had jumped after Kan - Japan's fifth leader in three years - replaced his indecisive predecessor last month.
But ratings slipped after Kan floated the typically taboo topic of raising the sales tax and seemingly failed to persuade voters he had a clear plan for fixing Japan's economic woes. "Kan has failed to get voters' minds off what a mess the DPJ has made of being in power," said Columbia University professor Gerry Curtis. "They won't be able to get anything done. It will be political manoeuvring for months to come."
The DPJ, which ousted its long-dominant rival last year with promises to cut waste and focus spending on consumers, will almost certainly run the government however many seats it wins on Sunday, because it controls the powerful lower house. The party needs a majority in the upper chamber to avoid policy deadlock and begin taking steps to reduce a public debt already about twice the size of the nearly $5 trillion economy, the worst among advanced countries. Surveys by the Nikkei, Yomiuri and Asahi newspapers showed the DPJ would likely win around 50 or even fewer of the 121 seats up for grabs in the 242-member chamber - well short of Kan's target, and a drop from its current 54 seats.
That would deprive the DPJ and its tiny coalition partner, the pro-spending People's New Party, of a majority in the upper house. The Democrats would be forced to seek new allies, hampering the government's ability to forge ahead with the fiscal reform that Kan has put at the heart of his campaign. The DPJ's current coalition partner opposes raising the 5 percent sales tax any time soon, as do some potential allies. Other opposition parties agree a rise is inevitable but would probably be reluctant to help out the rival DPJ, which has not yet mapped out any detailed tax reform proposals.
Kan, who has said that any sales tax hike would take at least two to three years to implement, told reporters there may be misunderstanding among voters that the tax would rise right away.
"I made a proposal to start non-partisan debate on not just the sales tax but on other taxes too so we can avoid default, but voters may have read too much into it," he was quoted by Kyodo news agency as saying while campaigning in northern Japan. A showing of fewer than 50 seats would leave Kan vulnerable to a challenge from powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa - a critic of his sales tax proposal - ahead of a September party leadership vote.