While addressing an award-winning ceremony held in connection with the world population day Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani emphasised the need for holding a census with a view to ensuring equitable distribution of resources. The United Nations defines essential features of population and housing censuses as "individual enumeration, universality with a defined territory, simultaneity and defined periodicity," and recommends that population censuses are taken at least every ten years.
It is relevant to note that the Census (Population & Housing) is a federal subject and listed as such at Sl. No 38 of the Federal Legislation list, Part-1, Fourth Schedule, Constitution of Pakistan. According to the Population Census website, seats in the National Assembly are allocated to each province/Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Federal Territory on the basis of the population, in accordance with the last preceding census officially published under Article-51(3) of the Constitution.
Further, distribution of funds between the Federation and the provinces made through the National Finance Commission (NFC) continues to include the census as one of the major criteria for the distribution of resources from the federal divisible pool even though, according to the recent accord, population is no longer the sole criterion. In addition, the quota for recruitment to federal posts is determined on the basis of population ratios, as provided by the census and according to the Establishment Division's Operations Manual No 8/9/72, TRV, dated 31st August, 1973, refers to this.
The first census, after independence, was carried out in 1951 and at the time, it was decreed that a census would be conducted every ten years. The second census was conducted in 1961 on schedule. The third one was only delayed by one year. It was carried out in 1972 because the delay was quite legitimate: profound political turmoil and war with India. The fourth census, too, was held on time, ie in 1981. The fifth census was delayed by over seven years and was finally conducted in 1998.
The census numeration in 1998 favoured the de jure approach (where persons are counted at their usual place of residence) and not de fecto, (in which persons are counted where they actually found on the census data). In 1998, both the approaches were applied simultaneously during enumeration, but the data was tabulated and published on the de jure basis for comparability of data over time.
The reasons for the seven-year delay are fairly well-acknowledged: the government was unprepared to face census results which, it was believed, would challenge the existing inter-provincial ratios and rural-urban ratios, as with any major alteration seats allocated to different provinces in the National Assembly, as well as the allocation of development funds under the NFC would be irrevocably altered. And it is these very concerns that, many maintain, are the root cause of the failure of the present government to hold a census in 2008, as scheduled - a delay that continues to this day.
In this context, for the Prime Minister to categorically state that a census is planned must be welcomed. However, disturbingly, he did not specify the date when the census would begin. At present, the government is reportedly under pressure not to hold a census from some of its coalition partners and the trend of extrapolation of the population, based on a growth rate that may well no longer be the correct, continues.
However, the government must beware of the obvious pitfall in not holding a census: not only would the distribution of resources and federal jobs not be on an equitable basis but the government may be unable to plan and budget for social sector investments in various localities appropriately and judiciously. Don't forget the quota to Federal posts is also worked out on the basis of population ratios as given by the census. It is highly important to note that population census is very significant for a nation. For example, the American government has this motto for the population census 2010: "We Can't Move Forward Until You Mail it Back". It is, therefore, strongly expected that census in Pakistan would be conducted using scientific standards by all means and in line with the UN guidelines and recommendations to maintain international comparability with other countries.