A mini-revolt is in the offing in PML-N. What is happening is quite natural. It is not possible for long to profess high moral principles while continuing to practice realpolitik. Nawaz and Opposition leader in National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar had miscalculated when they raised the demand for action against legislators with the fake degrees, hoping that this would provide them with another stick to beat the PPP with.
It was wrongly presumed that most of the sinners would belong to the PPP and while the campaign on the issue would discredit Zardari's party, it would establish the moral credentials of the PML-N leadership. It was hoped that the issue could also be used to call for mid-term elections.
Nisar had hinted at this while talking to the media last month. He said that mid term polls would remain the only option if a large number of lawmakers were disqualified. Speaking from a high moral ground he had ruled out support for any legislation that would save the fake degree holders, accusing the PPP of meditating the move.
Nisar had ranted last month, "We have conveyed to them (ie PPP) in the strongest terms that we would not be part of any such move, rather we would resist it inside and outside the Parliament." Early this month, Nisar ratcheted up the rhetoric further. "The President should not protect the cheaters," he said. He didn't perceive then that the largest number of cheats would be from his own party.
PML-N MNA Abid Sher Ali raised the hype further. "This is a process, which will make us a great nation. Nations have to sacrifice some individuals in the process of becoming great, so we should not be scared of the situation we're facing now." As the chickens come home to roost, Nawaz, Nisar and Abid are on a long holiday in Europe and the brunt has to be borne by Shahbaz.
When the Punjab Assembly took up the issue of the disqualification of fake degrees holders last week, the sentiment against the media and judiciary was so strong that it was not easy for Shahbaz to snub his parliamentary party, which was in open revolt. For those in possession of fake degrees, it was shocking to be disqualified.
For the rest, it was equally shocking to be forced to sit on the opposition benches. What Shahbaz did was to follow the dictum: If you can't beat them, join them. This suited him as he himself was getting cold feet over the prospect of the disqualification of so many party legislators. He made preparations prior to the raising of the issue in Punjab Assembly. The opposition parties were sounded.
Convincing the PPP MPAs was easy as their leadership was against the legislator's disqualification. The CM ensured the presence of the maximum members of MPs through special instructions given to the DCOs. The draft of the resolution was sent to the CM House where its language was changed to make the wording stronger. The Speaker extended the session for about 50 minutes to allow the members to revile the media.
The CM, who is mostly absent from the house, was present there all the time on Wednesday when the members delivered fiery speeches. He again spent all the time at the Assembly Hall, partly inside the house and partly in his chamber on Friday, when the resolution was passed. The moves were carefully choreographed. The debate that started on Wednesday was called off on Thursday when the CM was to speak on the water issue. The next day, the resolution was moved.
If Nawaz had thought he would be able to push the issue under the rug by making a scapegoat out of Mastikhel, he was mightily mistaken. It is the height of hypocrisy to suddenly accuse the man of being an outsider who had managed to jump over the PML-N bandwagon. Was Nawaz unaware of Mastikhel's past when the latter was inducted into the party and issued party ticket under the vigilant eyes of the Sharif Brothers more than two years back?
Nawaz's order from London to kick Mastikhel out from the party has remained unimplemented. What has complicated the issue further is that the man was given a hero's welcome in Punjab Assembly by the PML-N legislators amid slogans of "Qadam Barhao Mastikhel, Hum Tumhare Sath Hain," reserved so far for Nawaz. Nawaz's credibility would suffer for targeting Mastikhel alone and ignoring Shahbaz Sharif's role in the episode.
The mini-revolt will be over in days to come. Rebellions are more common in opposition parties. A ruling party has enough levers to contain the rebels with threats and rewards. What is fewer in a ruling party are keen to upset the applecart. The PML-N will, however, come out of the crisis badly battered and bruised.