As if it was not bad enough that flooding continues to devastate the country with horrifying, instant and long-term consequences, a sort of blame-game is said to be on in the official quarters as to who failed whom, to act in time to avert the catastrophe.
According to a newspaper report, at a meeting in the Prime Minister's Secretariat 'some government agencies were seen to be passing on to each other, the blame for the slow response to the emerging floods'. While the officials of the Water and Power Ministry and the Federal Flood Commission complained that they hadn't received proper warning, and therefore were left with very limited response time, the Met officials insisted that the warning was given in time, on June 21, but it was not passed on to the relevant quarters and provincial governments.
As to what is the truth of the matter, only time would tell, but to anyone who has any interest in the weather, it is difficult to find fault with the Met office - which, routinely issues a daily weather report, and during the present monsoon had released six weather advisories. That the current monsoons are going to be much heavier as compared to last year's, "due to interaction of westerly-easterly waves," the Met had left no doubt about it. Following a colossal failure, finger-pointing was expected, but no question, it is a painful addition to our miseries.
Could the Met office predict the 'super flood' with any degree of accuracy? Are we prepared to face flooding on a scale, even half of what we are witnessing today? Is our response, public and private, to this catastrophic happening adequate? Answers to these questions have to be explored in order to comprehend, to a possible extent, what has have happened and what could be possibly retrieved from this tragic happening. Nature remains flirtatious, even to the best of its lovers.
But a factor common to most recent studies and hypotheses, indicates that climate change, most probably as a consequence of global warming, is bringing greater extremes of weather. Not that Pakistan is facing an exceptionally heavy monsoon, China is also flooded with heavy rains and Russia is undergoing a crippling drought and excessively hot summer, with temperatures in the 40s. Giving the devil his due, one must concede that the Met people did sound timely forewarnings for three successive monsoon systems lasting through mid-August.
As to our preparedness, the fact is we were not. Of course, it was next to impossible to be in a state of readiness to confront the aftermath of a 400-milimetre rainfall, in just one day, which triggered flash floods in the north-west of the country, but there can be no justification for the neglected spurs and dykes, which gave in before the very first buffeting of water waves.
That the wall protecting the Sukkur city from a high-flooded Indus should be riddled with holes and breaches to allow illegal walk-through passages, is evidence that we were not prepared and equipped to cope with, even an average flood. If, at all, some good can come out of this calamity, it is the message that we should see to it that all anti-flood measures are in a state of readiness. Not only dykes, spurs and channels have to be checked against erosion and breaches, early warning systems have to be installed at all vulnerable places.
However, it is the quality of response to this tragic happening, both public and private, that may turn out to be the main staple for the blame-game. If inter-departmental finger-pointing is already on, a strong possibility exists that it may acquire inter-provincial discourse. Already voices are being heard from Peshawar and Lahore that the federal government is not even-handed in the distribution of aid. Then, a debate seems to be in the offing about the 'wisdom' of surrendering the Kalabagh Dam option to political pressures, with its concomitant fallout on politics. There can be more such angry voices.
We expect all concerned to exercise restraint and handle the aftermath of the catastrophe with utmost prudence to avert provincial disharmony, hoping that the Prime Minister Gilani would come to the fore and run the gauntlet of conflicting provincial positions and perspectives. As the chief executive, he should be the ultimate authority in deciding who should get what, when and how much.