Russia, the world's former No 3 wheat exporter, may need to import up to six million tonnes of grain in the current 2010/11 crop year to compensate for a severe drought, a leading Russian analyst said on Thursday. "Maybe we will not import all of this, but the balance shows that we will need this volume," Andrei Sizov Sr., CEO of SovEcon agricultural analysts told a conference of traders and corporate analysts.
The volumes will include wheat and feed barley from Kazakhstan, maize from Ukraine, feed barley and rye from Belarus, malting barley from Nordic countries and France, buckwheat from China and rice from Vietnam, China and Thailand. SovEcon expects wheat imports to be 1.5 million tonnes and barley imports 1.8 million, Sizov said.
"Besides private importers, we can't rule out that the state grain trader, the United Grain Co, may also import grain to replenish the government stocks to stabilise the market in the next crop year after an expected drastic decline of the winter sowing area," Sizov said.
Analysts have estimated Russia may have to ship in 1.5-2.2 million tonnes, but a report in Vedomosti daily last week said Russia could import at least 5 million tonnes of grain this year. Sizov said he expected a ban, imposed by the government on grain and grain products exports from August 15 to December 31 to be extended further at least to July 1.
"Maybe it will be done step by step," Sizov said. Russia exported between 13.4 million to 21.9 million tonnes of grain per year in 2007/09-2009/10. But it has never stopped being a grain importer, buying wheat from Kazakhstan to improve domestic grain quality, feed maize from Ukraine for animal feeding and malting barley from the European Union for beer brewing.
Total imports ranged between 0.35 million and 1.5 million tonnes in the three preceding years. SovEcon said that drought may cut Russian wheat production to 41.5 million tonnes this year from 61.7 million in 2009 and barley output to 8.9 million tonnes from 17.9 million. SovEcon provided the following figures.